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TENN
Tennessee
VolunteersBalancedSoutheastern Conference9-4#38 (+3.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
72· BOverall
Offense
63· CRating
59· CPer play
63· CConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
71· BPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
-0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.079
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
AP 21 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#13
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 23 spots higher
37 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense68th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play72th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness22th
Defensive havoc87th
Points per drive68th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Missouri2024OA +0.015 / +0.040similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3972LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: pass defense, run defense, defensive EPA3673Toledo2021OA +0.013 / +0.084similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3634Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3555Vanderbilt2026OA -0.037 / -0.005similar: defensive EPA, run defense, pass defense354
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Virginia | 49-13 | W | -28.0 | W | 56 | O |
| 2 | vs Austin Peay | 30-13 | W | -44.0 | L | 66.25 | U |
| 3 | @ Florida | 16-29 | L | -6.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 4 | vs UTSA | 45-14 | W | -21.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 5 | vs South Carolina | 41-20 | W | -12.0 | W | 63 | U |
| 7 | vs Texas A&M | 20-13 | W | -3.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Alabama | 20-34 | L | +9.0 | L | 49 | O |
| 9 | @ Kentucky | 33-27 | W | -3.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 10 | vs UConn | 59-3 | W | -35.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 11 | @ Missouri | 7-36 | L | -1.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Georgia | 10-38 | L | +10.5 | L | 58.75 | U |
| 13 | vs Vanderbilt | 48-24 | W | -27.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Iowa | 35-0 | W | -5.5 | W | 35.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS6-3
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.016 | 52th | -0.053 | 79th |
| Red Zone | -0.095 | 28th | -0.101 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.178 | 46th | +0.090 | 72th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.026 | 56th | -0.042 | 71th |
| First Half | +0.117 | 79th | -0.062 | 79th |
| Second Half | -0.081 | 24th | -0.044 | 67th |
| Early Downs | +0.082 | 92th | -0.055 | 57th |
| Passing Downs | -0.045 | 27th | -0.011 | 70th |
| Standard Downs | +0.047 | 74th | -0.079 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | -0.081 | 32th | -0.199 | 75th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
22.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
448.1
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
16.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 413 | 264 |
| Points / Game | 31.8 | 20.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 244 |
| Rushing | 140 | 87 |
| Passing | 134 | 124 |
| Penalty | 10 | 33 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 489 | 463 |
| Yards | 2,663 | 1,478 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 204.8 | 113.7 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 410 | 414 |
| Completions | 262 | 270 |
| Completion % | 63.9% | 65.2% |
| Yards | 3,162 | 2,879 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 143.95 | 129.79 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 899 | 877 |
| Yards | 5,825 | 4,357 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 448.1 | 335.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 8 |
| Yards | 259 | 4 |
| Average | 12.3 | 0.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 13 |
| Yards | 293 | 277 |
| Average | 19.5 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,337 | 2,686 |
| Average | 42.5 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 5 |
| Yards | 239 | 109 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 11 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 72 |
| Yards | 883 | 523 |
| Yards / Game | 67.9 | 40.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 24:57 | 35:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 197 |
| Conversions | 73 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 42.0% | 36.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 26 |
| Conversions | 7 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 26.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 35 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 23 |
| TD % | 51.9% | 56.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 23 |
| Made | 19 | 19 |
| Pct | 79.2% | 82.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 28 |
| Made | 50 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.