← All Teams
MICH
Michigan
WolverinesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference10-3#8 (+9.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
94· AOverall
Offense
84· BRating
64· CPer play
74· BConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
92· A-Per play
94· AConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.092
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.163
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.171
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
40.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.213
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.097
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 1 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense83th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play65th
Defensive EPA/play92th
Offensive success rate72th
Explosiveness53th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive83th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida State2023OA +0.078 / +0.123similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3912LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3883Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3884Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: run defense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3765Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate374
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Notre Dame | 17-24 | L | -4.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 2 | vs Western Michigan | 49-3 | W | -27.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | vs SMU | 45-20 | W | -37.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Nebraska | 56-10 | W | -18.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 5 | @ Northwestern | 20-17 | W | -14.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Maryland | 42-21 | W | -17.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 7 | vs Wisconsin | 38-13 | W | -10.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Michigan State | 21-7 | W | -7.5 | W | 38.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Penn State | 42-7 | W | -13.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 11 | @ Rutgers | 42-7 | W | -36.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 12 | vs Indiana | 31-20 | W | -28.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Ohio State | 39-62 | L | -4.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Florida | 15-41 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.044 | 67th | -0.113 | 88th |
| Red Zone | -0.044 | 34th | +0.099 | 30th |
| Third Down | +0.094 | 59th | -0.057 | 73th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.039 | 67th | -0.159 | 92th |
| First Half | +0.043 | 65th | -0.127 | 83th |
| Second Half | +0.046 | 67th | -0.100 | 83th |
| Early Downs | +0.079 | 85th | -0.115 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | -0.005 | 46th | -0.114 | 77th |
| Standard Downs | +0.066 | 75th | -0.112 | 84th |
| Goal to Go | +0.316 | 86th | +0.166 | 35th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
419.5
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
48.6%
3&Out%
18.0%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 457 | 252 |
| Points / Game | 35.2 | 19.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 280 | 206 |
| Rushing | 136 | 89 |
| Passing | 123 | 82 |
| Penalty | 21 | 35 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 549 | 450 |
| Yards | 2,649 | 1,656 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 203.8 | 127.4 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 347 | 331 |
| Completions | 223 | 164 |
| Completion % | 64.3% | 49.5% |
| Yards | 2,804 | 1,921 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 149.78 | 105.61 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 896 | 781 |
| Yards | 5,453 | 3,577 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 419.5 | 275.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 19 |
| Yards | 316 | 186 |
| Average | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 28 |
| Yards | 533 | 506 |
| Average | 19.7 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 44 | 81 |
| Yards | 2,020 | 3,251 |
| Average | 45.9 | 40.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 9 |
| Yards | 274 | 143 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 7 |
| Lost | 3 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 76 |
| Yards | 826 | 728 |
| Yards / Game | 63.5 | 56.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:18 | 25:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 175 |
| Conversions | 90 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 48.6% | 33.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 21 |
| Conversions | 9 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 47.4% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 30 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 28 |
| Score % | 87.7% | 93.3% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 20 |
| TD % | 59.6% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 10 |
| Made | 21 | 10 |
| Pct | 77.8% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 51 | 31 |
| Made | 50 | 30 |
| Pct | 98.0% | 96.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.