Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference12-2#7 (+10.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
84· BRating
65· CPer play
46· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
82· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.111
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.063
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
41.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.116
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+2.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#8
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 6 spots higher
85 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate3762LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3743Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate3674Florida State2023OA +0.078 / +0.123similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate3675Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate365

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Middle Tennessee56-7W-39.0W52O
2vs Texas24-34L-6.8L58.5U
3@ South Florida17-3W-33.0L61U
4vs Ole Miss24-10W-6.5W55.25U
5@ Mississippi State40-17W-14.5W46.5O
6@ Texas A&M26-20W-2.0W46.5U
7vs Arkansas24-21W-19.5L46.5U
8vs Tennessee34-20W-9.0W49O
10vs LSU42-28W-3.0W60.5O
11@ Kentucky49-21W-10.5W48O
12vs Chattanooga66-10W-48.0W66.5O
13@ Auburn27-24W-14.5L49O
14vs Georgia27-24W+5.5W55.5U
18@ Michigan20-27L+2.0L45O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS8-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off63thRed Zone Off79th3rd Down Off65thPass Def59thRush Def70thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07576th-0.03971th
Red Zone+0.12679th-0.02954th
Third Down+0.26965th+0.17748th
No Garbage Time+0.05266th-0.05278th
First Half+0.05662th-0.05376th
Second Half+0.09681th-0.02353th
Early Downs-0.00861th-0.06765th
Passing Downs+0.18381th+0.00759th
Standard Downs+0.02163th-0.06770th
Goal to Go+0.11972th+0.03046th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.7%Rush 63.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
393.1
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
45.1%
3&Out%
22.9%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points476266
Points / Game34.019.0
First Downs
Total280228
Rushing13895
Passing124113
Penalty1820
Rushing
Attempts561470
Yards2,4171,749
Yards / Carry4.33.7
Yards / Game172.6124.9
Touchdowns3215
Passing
Attempts325413
Completions208245
Completion %64.0%59.3%
Yards3,0862,675
Yards / Attempt9.56.5
Touchdowns2317
Interceptions612
Passer Rating163.42121.50
Total Offense
Plays886883
Yards5,5034,424
Yards / Play6.25.0
Yards / Game393.1316.0
Punt Returns
Returns2013
Yards174120
Average8.79.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2425
Yards533407
Average22.216.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6372
Yards2,9713,314
Average47.246.0
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards12563
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1918
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties7872
Yards655549
Yards / Game46.839.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4429:16
Third Downs
Attempts182191
Conversions8263
Conversion %45.1%33.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts727
Conversions511
Conversion %71.4%40.7%
Red Zone
Trips5241
Scores (TD + FG)4834
Score %92.3%82.9%
Touchdowns3623
TD %69.2%56.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2521
Made2214
Pct88.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5631
Made5630
Pct100.0%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →