Fourth Down Data
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BGSU

Bowling Green

FalconsBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-6#47 (+2.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
60· CRating
59· CPer play
40· CConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
66· CPer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.032
Defensive EPA/play
-0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
41.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.076
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.052
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#46
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
52th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Cincinnati2022OA -0.058 / +0.081similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3772Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, pass defense3663Iowa State2023OA +0.096 / +0.045similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate3664Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: pass defense, rushing offense, takeaway rate3555Clemson2025OA +0.079 / +0.044similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate348

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Fordham41-17W----
2@ Penn State27-34L+32.0W49.5O
4@ Texas A&M20-26L+22.5W51.5U
5vs Old Dominion27-30L-10.0L51.5O
6@ Akron27-20W-15.5L51U
7vs Northern Illinois7-17L-3.0L47.5U
8vs Kent State27-6W-20.5W55.5U
9@ Toledo41-26W+2.5W49.5O
11@ Central Michigan23-13W-9.5W57.5U
12vs Western Michigan31-13W----
13@ Ball State38-13W-2.3L40.5U
14vs Miami (OH)12-28L----
18vs Arkansas State31-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off46thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off39thPass Def79thRush Def44thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03660th-0.03264th
Red Zone-0.03143th-0.19187th
Third Down+0.05439th+0.01966th
No Garbage Time+0.04266th-0.03563th
First Half+0.11585th-0.02453th
Second Half-0.04125th-0.04069th
Early Downs-0.03439th-0.05460th
Passing Downs+0.11276th-0.10979th
Standard Downs-0.00546th+0.01644th
Goal to Go+0.01249th-0.05963th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
377.4
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBowling GreenOpponents
Scoring
Points352281
Points / Game27.121.6
First Downs
Total258227
Rushing99101
Passing142108
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts425443
Yards1,7781,897
Yards / Carry4.24.3
Yards / Game136.8145.9
Touchdowns2014
Passing
Attempts419370
Completions276214
Completion %65.9%57.8%
Yards3,1282,410
Yards / Attempt7.56.5
Touchdowns2017
Interceptions612
Passer Rating141.47121.23
Total Offense
Plays844813
Yards4,9064,307
Yards / Play5.85.3
Yards / Game377.4331.3
Punt Returns
Returns249
Yards10794
Average4.510.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2829
Yards653554
Average23.319.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5060
Yards2,0402,441
Average40.840.7
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards14464
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1810
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties6967
Yards595572
Yards / Game45.844.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5228:08
Third Downs
Attempts178177
Conversions6860
Conversion %38.2%33.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2628
Conversions1617
Conversion %61.5%60.7%
Red Zone
Trips5039
Scores (TD + FG)4130
Score %82.0%76.9%
Touchdowns2918
TD %58.0%46.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2822
Made1918
Pct67.9%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4028
Made3927
Pct97.5%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →