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KSU
Kansas State
WildcatsRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference8-5#31 (+9.52)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
77· BOverall
Offense
61· CRating
53· CPer play
41· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
47· CPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.015
Defensive EPA/play
+0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.012
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.112
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.31
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.46
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense47th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play54th
Defensive EPA/play48th
Offensive success rate47th
Explosiveness56th
Defensive havoc33th
Points per drive57th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Maryland2022OA +0.033 / +0.023similar: pass defense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3842Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: pass defense, rushing offense, takeaway rate3553Arkansas2021OA +0.129 / +0.084similar: run defense, turnover rate, passing offense3434UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3395Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: TD drive rate, run defense, takeaway rate335
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Nicholls State | 49-14 | W | +2.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Bowling Green | 52-0 | W | -25.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Mississippi State | 31-24 | W | +7.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 5 | @ Oklahoma State | 13-26 | L | +4.0 | L | 60 | U |
| 6 | vs Baylor | 12-31 | L | +1.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 8 | vs TCU | 24-17 | W | +4.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Oklahoma | 48-41 | W | +23.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 10 | @ Kansas | 38-10 | W | -5.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Texas | 24-27 | L | +7.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 12 | vs West Virginia | 20-24 | L | -14.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 13 | @ Texas Tech | 30-27 | W | -1.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Iowa State | 27-17 | W | +4.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 19 | vs Navy | 17-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.016 | 54th | -0.002 | 50th |
| Red Zone | +0.115 | 74th | +0.044 | 36th |
| Third Down | +0.078 | 59th | -0.101 | 78th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.006 | 49th | +0.004 | 48th |
| First Half | +0.009 | 51th | -0.038 | 60th |
| Second Half | +0.022 | 53th | +0.032 | 34th |
| Early Downs | -0.017 | 39th | +0.006 | 50th |
| Passing Downs | +0.062 | 61th | +0.104 | 26th |
| Standard Downs | -0.010 | 45th | -0.064 | 75th |
| Goal to Go | +0.100 | 68th | -0.147 | 65th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.0%Rush 64.0%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
358.9
Pts/Drive
2.31
3rd Down%
43.1%
3&Out%
23.1%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Kansas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 385 | 278 |
| Points / Game | 29.6 | 21.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 254 | 224 |
| Rushing | 117 | 96 |
| Passing | 116 | 109 |
| Penalty | 21 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 538 | 426 |
| Yards | 2,314 | 2,151 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 178.0 | 165.5 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 303 | 350 |
| Completions | 181 | 207 |
| Completion % | 59.7% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 2,352 | 2,638 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 134.71 | 127.48 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 841 | 776 |
| Yards | 4,666 | 4,789 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Yards / Game | 358.9 | 368.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 10 |
| Yards | 163 | 126 |
| Average | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 33 |
| Yards | 1,003 | 597 |
| Average | 29.5 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 67 |
| Yards | 2,541 | 2,590 |
| Average | 45.4 | 38.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 5 |
| Yards | 128 | 17 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 10 |
| Lost | 9 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 77 | 82 |
| Yards | 679 | 765 |
| Yards / Game | 52.2 | 58.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:27 | 26:33 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 150 |
| Conversions | 75 | 42 |
| Conversion % | 43.1% | 28.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 17 |
| Conversions | 9 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 41.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 33 |
| Score % | 96.2% | 97.1% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 18 |
| TD % | 67.3% | 52.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 23 |
| Made | 19 | 20 |
| Pct | 90.5% | 87.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 30 |
| Made | 46 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.