Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UAB

UAB

BlazersRun-Heavy
American Conference8-5#108 (-12.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
57· CPer play
57· CConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
71· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.001
Defensive EPA/play
-0.103
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.102
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.227
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.66
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.19
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UAB ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
52th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana2021OA +0.026 / +0.005similar: turnover rate, pass defense, passing offense3632Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, havoc rate3593Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, rushing offense3484New Mexico2026OA +0.017 / +0.073similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, run defense3465Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate343

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alabama A&M38-7W+6.5L55.5U
2@ Ball State31-51L+13.5L54O
3vs Coastal Carolina30-23W-2.0W52.5O
4@ North Texas43-46L+10.0W59O
6vs Louisiana Tech23-22W+9.5W65.5U
7vs Middle Tennessee25-23W+4.5W55.5U
8@ Charlotte24-25L-9.5L51.5U
9@ Southern Miss30-12W+11.5W51.5U
10vs Rice52-21W-8.5W49.5O
11@ UTSA24-19W+7.0W50U
12@ Florida7-36L+10.5L48U
13vs UTEP28-7W-21.0P47.5U
17@ Ohio6-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-0
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off56thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off81thPass Def50thRush Def79thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00556th-0.08469th
Red Zone+0.13578th-0.19085th
Third Down+0.15881th-0.00649th
No Garbage Time-0.00056th-0.09471th
First Half+0.03269th-0.06560th
Second Half-0.04142th-0.10574th
Early Downs-0.03553th-0.09373th
Passing Downs+0.03062th-0.02650th
Standard Downs-0.02256th-0.12179th
Goal to Go+0.40993th-0.33989th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.3%Rush 60.7%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
363.8
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
25.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — UAB vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUABOpponents
Scoring
Points361333
Points / Game27.825.6
First Downs
Total251254
Rushing128110
Passing101113
Penalty2231
Rushing
Attempts529494
Yards2,3822,287
Yards / Carry4.54.6
Yards / Game183.2175.9
Touchdowns2719
Passing
Attempts342388
Completions207202
Completion %60.5%52.1%
Yards2,3472,466
Yards / Attempt6.96.4
Touchdowns1618
Interceptions514
Passer Rating130.69113.54
Total Offense
Plays871882
Yards4,7294,753
Yards / Play5.45.4
Yards / Game363.8365.6
Punt Returns
Returns1828
Yards169289
Average9.410.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4337
Yards884868
Average20.623.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6968
Yards2,6952,856
Average39.142.0
Interception Returns
Returns145
Yards24468
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1612
Lost105
Penalties
Penalties7689
Yards697807
Yards / Game53.662.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3631:24
Third Downs
Attempts185187
Conversions8468
Conversion %45.4%36.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1219
Conversions49
Conversion %33.3%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips4840
Scores (TD + FG)4332
Score %89.6%80.0%
Touchdowns3422
TD %70.8%55.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1725
Made1321
Pct76.5%84.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4236
Made4030
Pct95.2%83.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →