Fourth Down Data
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JXST

Jacksonville State

GamecocksRun-Heavy
Conference USA9-5#113 (-11.70)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
54· CPer play
70· BConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
67· CPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.006
Defensive EPA/play
-0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.7%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#71
market 42 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 34 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Jacksonville State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
76th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2017OA +0.038 / -0.048similar: pass defense, rushing offense, turnover rate3812UTSA2020OA -0.013 / -0.000similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3703Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: run defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3634UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, havoc rate3595Syracuse2018OA +0.008 / +0.062similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense349

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UCF10-17L----
2vs Liberty34-24W+6.5W50.5O
3@ Georgia Southern34-41L+3.0L58.75O
4vs Murray State45-10W-36.0L60.5U
5@ Southern Miss25-42L+4.0L55.5O
7@ Sam Houston29-27W+3.0W57.5O
8vs Delaware38-25W----
10@ Middle Tennessee24-21W----
11@ UTEP30-27W-6.5L56.5O
12vs Kennesaw State35-26W+3.0W56O
13@ Florida International21-27L-3.5L52.5U
14vs Western Kentucky37-34W+2.5L61.5U
15vs Kennesaw State15-19L----
17vs Troy17-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-8
42.9%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off45thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off68thPass Def70thRush Def58thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03064th-0.05162th
Red Zone-0.02345th-0.12978th
Third Down+0.17768th-0.02566th
No Garbage Time+0.01558th-0.06267th
First Half+0.03462th-0.11884th
Second Half+0.02666th+0.02139th
Early Downs-0.00848th+0.00039th
Passing Downs+0.09879th-0.08370th
Standard Downs-0.00345th-0.03458th
Goal to Go+0.02256th-0.28981th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.5%Rush 66.5%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
408.7
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
17.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Jacksonville State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJacksonville StateOpponents
Scoring
Points394353
Points / Game28.125.2
First Downs
Total297293
Rushing173123
Passing100140
Penalty2430
Rushing
Attempts650506
Yards3,4542,020
Yards / Carry5.34.0
Yards / Game246.7144.3
Touchdowns3222
Passing
Attempts328446
Completions195273
Completion %59.5%61.2%
Yards2,2683,283
Yards / Attempt6.97.4
Touchdowns1319
Interceptions614
Passer Rating126.95130.82
Total Offense
Plays978952
Yards5,7225,303
Yards / Play5.95.6
Yards / Game408.7378.8
Punt Returns
Returns912
Yards47107
Average5.28.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1332
Yards192697
Average14.821.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6058
Yards2,3802,524
Average39.743.5
Interception Returns
Returns146
Yards27049
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1420
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties8090
Yards788746
Yards / Game56.353.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:15
Third Downs
Attempts197187
Conversions7768
Conversion %39.1%36.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2935
Conversions1618
Conversion %55.2%51.4%
Red Zone
Trips5951
Scores (TD + FG)5041
Score %84.7%80.4%
Touchdowns3431
TD %57.6%60.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2818
Made2114
Pct75.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4137
Made4137
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts69
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →