Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference7-5#82 (-1.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
24· DRating
50· CPer play
34· DConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
54· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.006
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.118
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.50
own return game
Return Defense
-0.82
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#86
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3702Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3653Texas A&M2024OA +0.023 / +0.028similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate3564UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate3455California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA341

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Texas State51-48W+7.0W56O
3vs Stephen F. Austin24-10W----
4vs Middle Tennessee37-35W----
5@ UAB13-21L+20.3W54.5U
6@ BYU20-27L+35.0W63U
7vs Army16-28L+7.3L49.5U
8vs Louisiana Tech27-26W+2.3W54U
9@ Florida Atlantic3-24L+5.0L47.5U
11vs UTEP52-21W-7.0W45.25O
12@ Southern Miss23-20W-10.0L52U
13vs North Texas49-17W-3.3W67U
17vs Louisiana24-31L+13.0W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off71thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off77thPass Def63thRush Def45thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02052th+0.01258th
Red Zone+0.09170th+0.09230th
Third Down+0.24977th+0.07850th
No Garbage Time+0.01152th+0.01055th
First Half-0.01144th+0.03245th
Second Half+0.05363th-0.01058th
Early Downs+0.00855th-0.03769th
Passing Downs-0.03835th-0.01563th
Standard Downs+0.05171th+0.02745th
Goal to Go-0.10131th+0.14934th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
18.3
Yards/Game
415.3
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points339308
Points / Game28.325.7
First Downs
Total262242
Rushing121111
Passing115101
Penalty2630
Rushing
Attempts496457
Yards2,5851,945
Yards / Carry5.24.3
Yards / Game215.4162.1
Touchdowns2416
Passing
Attempts370361
Completions222219
Completion %60.0%60.7%
Yards2,3992,655
Yards / Attempt6.57.4
Touchdowns1622
Interceptions811
Passer Rating124.41136.46
Total Offense
Plays866818
Yards4,9844,600
Yards / Play5.85.6
Yards / Game415.3383.3
Punt Returns
Returns2117
Yards66266
Average3.115.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2929
Yards508669
Average17.523.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5757
Yards2,6212,414
Average46.042.4
Interception Returns
Returns118
Yards14780
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1020
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties8471
Yards803664
Yards / Game66.955.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4230:18
Third Downs
Attempts179165
Conversions7866
Conversion %43.6%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1917
Conversions109
Conversion %52.6%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips4744
Scores (TD + FG)4238
Score %89.4%86.4%
Touchdowns3028
TD %63.8%63.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2016
Made1711
Pct85.0%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4138
Made4035
Pct97.6%92.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →