Fourth Down Data
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TA&M

Texas A&M

AggiesRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference8-5#22 (+6.26)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
61· CPer play
68· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
69· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
88· B3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.034
Defensive EPA/play
-0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.090
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#16
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#6
recruiting 16 spots higher
68 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate3852Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive success rate3833App State2020OA +0.035 / +0.030similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA3694North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3675Syracuse2018OA +0.008 / +0.062similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA364

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Notre Dame13-23L-3.0L46U
2vs McNeese State52-10W-53.5L62.5U
3@ Florida33-20W-3.5W47.5O
4vs Bowling Green26-20W-22.5L51.5U
5vs Arkansas21-17W-4.5L52U
6vs Missouri41-10W-2.5W48.5O
8@ Mississippi State34-24W-15.0L56O
9vs LSU38-23W-2.5W53.5O
10@ South Carolina20-44L-2.5L44.5O
12vs New Mexico State38-3W-39.5L54U
13@ Auburn41-43L-2.5L46.5O
14vs Texas7-17L+5.5L48.25U
18vs USC31-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-10
23.1%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-7
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS3-9
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off48thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off89thPass Def43thRush Def76thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03159th-0.03668th
Red Zone+0.08066th+0.00050th
Third Down+0.30989th+0.05357th
No Garbage Time+0.02557th-0.04868th
First Half+0.05068th-0.03357th
Second Half+0.00845th-0.03867th
Early Downs+0.01060th-0.07870th
Passing Downs+0.10074th+0.03043th
Standard Downs-0.00248th-0.07876th
Goal to Go+0.26787th-0.40395th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
405.8
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
45.1%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas A&MOpponents
Scoring
Points395289
Points / Game30.422.2
First Downs
Total279255
Rushing126102
Passing132123
Penalty2130
Rushing
Attempts526442
Yards2,5411,757
Yards / Carry4.84.0
Yards / Game195.5135.2
Touchdowns2714
Passing
Attempts361428
Completions216228
Completion %59.8%53.3%
Yards2,7343,018
Yards / Attempt7.67.1
Touchdowns1920
Interceptions1116
Passer Rating134.72120.45
Total Offense
Plays887870
Yards5,2754,775
Yards / Play5.95.5
Yards / Game405.8367.3
Punt Returns
Returns154
Yards5833
Average3.98.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1523
Yards308534
Average20.523.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4758
Yards2,0642,340
Average43.940.3
Interception Returns
Returns1611
Yards24945
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles910
Lost44
Penalties
Penalties9881
Yards862673
Yards / Game66.351.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4328:20
Third Downs
Attempts175181
Conversions7964
Conversion %45.1%35.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1829
Conversions815
Conversion %44.4%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips5338
Scores (TD + FG)4833
Score %90.6%86.8%
Touchdowns3722
TD %69.8%57.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2424
Made2017
Pct83.3%70.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4732
Made4732
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →