Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference9-3#15 (+8.26)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
79· BPer play
79· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
73· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.160
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.71
own return game
Return Defense
+0.61
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#8
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
80th
Offensive EPA/play
79th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
85th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas A&M2024OA +0.023 / +0.028similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA3692Cincinnati2020OA +0.022 / +0.059similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3543Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3444Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3435Tennessee2026OA +0.011 / +0.057similar: pass defense, passing offense, TD drive rate341

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Charlotte35-20W-17.0L59.5U
3@ Marshall7-17L-5.0L59.5U
4vs Campbell52-21W----
8vs Arkansas State45-17W----
9@ UL Monroe31-13W-32.0L55.5U
10@ Texas State38-17W-17.5W56.5U
11vs Georgia State17-13W-16.0L63.5U
12@ Coastal Carolina23-34L+5.0L48O
13vs Troy47-10W-2.5L51U
14vs Louisiana21-24L----
15@ Georgia Southern34-26W-9.5L45O
16@ North Texas56-28W-21.5W67.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off85thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off96thPass Def49thRush Def88thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10682th-0.05277th
Red Zone-0.02948th-0.18388th
Third Down+0.51996th+0.14930th
No Garbage Time+0.10882th-0.04873th
First Half+0.13080th-0.02564th
Second Half+0.08072th-0.08177th
Early Downs+0.04870th-0.15596th
Passing Downs+0.11165th+0.04849th
Standard Downs+0.10385th-0.11588th
Goal to Go+0.11858th-0.54097th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.5%Rush 64.5%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
452.0
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
51.2%
3&Out%
16.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points406240
Points / Game33.820.0
First Downs
Total281223
Rushing159105
Passing9695
Penalty2623
Rushing
Attempts545448
Yards3,1791,811
Yards / Carry5.84.0
Yards / Game264.9150.9
Touchdowns2814
Passing
Attempts300350
Completions190168
Completion %63.3%48.0%
Yards2,2452,135
Yards / Attempt7.56.1
Touchdowns2113
Interceptions1115
Passer Rating141.96102.93
Total Offense
Plays845798
Yards5,4243,946
Yards / Play6.44.9
Yards / Game452.0328.8
Punt Returns
Returns1818
Yards15539
Average8.62.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3342
Yards739728
Average22.417.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts3758
Yards1,5402,446
Average41.642.2
Interception Returns
Returns1511
Yards231106
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1719
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties8866
Yards811633
Yards / Game67.652.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1827:43
Third Downs
Attempts162172
Conversions8365
Conversion %51.2%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2027
Conversions1113
Conversion %55.0%48.1%
Red Zone
Trips5237
Scores (TD + FG)3928
Score %75.0%75.7%
Touchdowns3019
TD %57.7%51.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1914
Made1312
Pct68.4%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5222
Made5120
Pct98.1%90.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts07
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →