Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
TOL

Toledo

RocketsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference11-3#24 (+5.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
65· CPer play
64· CConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
81· BRating
87· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
88· B3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.050
Defensive EPA/play
-0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#14
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 52 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
85th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Cincinnati2020OA +0.022 / +0.059similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4612Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate4143Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate4124Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense4115Cincinnati2018OA -0.060 / +0.170similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate408

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Illinois28-30L+9.5W45.5O
2vs Texas Southern71-3W-37.5W58.5O
3vs San José State21-17W-7.0L57.5U
4vs Western Michigan49-31W-21.0L53.5O
5vs Northern Illinois35-33W-13.0L47.5O
6@ Massachusetts41-24W-19.0L58.5O
7@ Ball State13-6W-17.0L48.5U
8@ Miami (OH)21-17W-2.0W48.5U
10vs Buffalo31-13W-19.0W46.5O
11vs Eastern Michigan49-23W-10.0L49.5O
12@ Bowling Green32-31W-10.5W55U
13@ Central Michigan32-17W----
14vs Miami (OH)14-23L-7.5L44U
18@ Wyoming15-16L+3.5W44.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off76thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off89thPass Def84thRush Def64thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06071th-0.05276th
Red Zone+0.27194th-0.09667th
Third Down+0.37889th+0.14257th
No Garbage Time+0.05668th-0.08286th
First Half+0.08770th-0.04574th
Second Half+0.03464th-0.05976th
Early Downs-0.01259th-0.08675th
Passing Downs+0.07659th-0.05084th
Standard Downs+0.05276th-0.05364th
Goal to Go+0.44899th-0.29986th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
419.2
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
23.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatToledoOpponents
Scoring
Points452284
Points / Game32.320.3
First Downs
Total286261
Rushing117117
Passing144115
Penalty2529
Rushing
Attempts524526
Yards2,7802,083
Yards / Carry5.34.0
Yards / Game198.6148.8
Touchdowns3118
Passing
Attempts377410
Completions232219
Completion %61.5%53.4%
Yards3,0892,562
Yards / Attempt8.26.2
Touchdowns2612
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating147.82110.20
Total Offense
Plays901936
Yards5,8694,645
Yards / Play6.55.0
Yards / Game419.2331.8
Punt Returns
Returns198
Yards10551
Average5.56.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4053
Yards868848
Average21.716.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5469
Yards2,0062,753
Average37.139.9
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards96143
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2118
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties9384
Yards865735
Yards / Game61.852.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3732:03
Third Downs
Attempts178198
Conversions7974
Conversion %44.4%37.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2226
Conversions1312
Conversion %59.1%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips5747
Scores (TD + FG)5137
Score %89.5%78.7%
Touchdowns4223
TD %73.7%48.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1525
Made1219
Pct80.0%76.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5328
Made5227
Pct98.1%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts66
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →