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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsBalancedBig 12 Conference9-1#5 (+11.47)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
96· AOverall
Offense
83· BRating
68· CPer play
67· CConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
90· A-Per play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
78· B3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.067
Defensive EPA/play
-0.128
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.196
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.74
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.72
own return game
Return Defense
+0.94
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#19
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
model 24 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense73th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play69th
Defensive EPA/play91th
Offensive success rate72th
Explosiveness44th
Defensive havoc90th
Points per drive84th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4612Oregon2019OA +0.082 / +0.145similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4083Alabama2024OA +0.011 / +0.045similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3904Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3785Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate377
2020 Schedule & Results
10 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs Austin Peay | 55-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Army | 24-10 | W | -13.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 5 | vs South Florida | 28-7 | W | -21.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 8 | @ SMU | 42-13 | W | +2.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Memphis | 49-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Houston | 38-10 | W | -27.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 11 | vs East Carolina | 55-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ UCF | 36-33 | W | -4.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 16 | vs Tulsa | 27-24 | W | -14.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 18 | vs Georgia | 21-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-3
66.7%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
9-1
90.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-1
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.093 | 77th | -0.106 | 88th |
| Red Zone | -0.018 | 51th | -0.260 | 91th |
| Third Down | +0.257 | 79th | +0.000 | 66th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.073 | 70th | -0.103 | 88th |
| First Half | +0.074 | 67th | -0.112 | 85th |
| Second Half | +0.113 | 80th | -0.100 | 80th |
| Early Downs | -0.020 | 44th | -0.088 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | +0.175 | 78th | -0.128 | 87th |
| Standard Downs | +0.054 | 73th | -0.093 | 84th |
| Goal to Go | -0.036 | 40th | +0.293 | 16th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
451.0
Pts/Drive
2.74
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
23.9%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 10 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 375 | 168 |
| Points / Game | 37.5 | 16.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 219 | 194 |
| Rushing | 97 | 71 |
| Passing | 112 | 95 |
| Penalty | 10 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 355 |
| Yards | 2,124 | 1,111 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Yards / Game | 212.4 | 111.1 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 295 | 355 |
| Completions | 197 | 189 |
| Completion % | 66.8% | 53.2% |
| Yards | 2,386 | 2,135 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 153.03 | 101.25 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 676 | 710 |
| Yards | 4,510 | 3,246 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 451.0 | 324.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 13 |
| Yards | 123 | 84 |
| Average | 8.2 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 23 |
| Yards | 476 | 503 |
| Average | 28.0 | 21.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 40 | 54 |
| Yards | 1,754 | 2,196 |
| Average | 43.9 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 6 |
| Yards | 130 | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 11 |
| Lost | 10 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 57 |
| Yards | 768 | 553 |
| Yards / Game | 76.8 | 55.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:60 | 28:00 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 132 | 150 |
| Conversions | 60 | 52 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 34.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 24 |
| Conversions | 10 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 71.4% | 37.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 25 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 73.5% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 15 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 44.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 16 |
| Made | 7 | 13 |
| Pct | 70.0% | 81.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 15 |
| Made | 48 | 15 |
| Pct | 96.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.