Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideBalanced
Southeastern Conference9-4#6 (+10.26)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
88· BRating
53· CPer play
71· BConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
87· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.119
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.303
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#5
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 5 spots higher
88 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Alabama2023OA +0.039 / +0.075similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense4152Cincinnati2020OA +0.022 / +0.059similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3903Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3794South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3725Wisconsin2017OA +0.122 / +0.234similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA369

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Kentucky63-0W-31.5W59.5O
2vs South Florida42-16W-31.0L63.5U
3@ Wisconsin42-10W-16.5W49.5O
5vs Georgia41-34W+2.0W48.5O
6@ Vanderbilt35-40L-23.0L54.5O
7vs South Carolina27-25W-21.0L50.5O
8@ Tennessee17-24L-3.0L56.5U
9vs Missouri34-0W-13.5W55U
11@ LSU42-13W-3.0W58.5U
12vs Mercer52-7W-42.0W58.5O
13@ Oklahoma3-24L-13.5L47.25U
14vs Auburn28-14W-11.5W52U
19@ Michigan13-19L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off60thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off66thPass Def65thRush Def97thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def93th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03763th-0.12090th
Red Zone+0.12272th-0.29295th
Third Down+0.17266th-0.17593th
No Garbage Time+0.02456th-0.10586th
First Half+0.01651th-0.19796th
Second Half+0.05866th-0.03463th
Early Downs+0.03169th-0.18799th
Passing Downs+0.07060th-0.06265th
Standard Downs+0.02360th-0.15597th
Goal to Go+0.13567th-0.44396th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.0%Rush 58.0%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
410.2
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
47.3%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points439226
Points / Game33.817.4
First Downs
Total271245
Rushing126100
Passing127112
Penalty1833
Rushing
Attempts488487
Yards2,2601,792
Yards / Carry4.63.7
Yards / Game173.8137.8
Touchdowns4110
Passing
Attempts354395
Completions226236
Completion %63.8%59.7%
Yards3,0732,369
Yards / Attempt8.76.0
Touchdowns1713
Interceptions1117
Passer Rating146.39112.38
Total Offense
Plays842882
Yards5,3334,161
Yards / Play6.34.7
Yards / Game410.2320.1
Punt Returns
Returns258
Yards2248
Average9.01.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1426
Yards282478
Average20.118.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5263
Yards2,3592,759
Average45.443.8
Interception Returns
Returns1711
Yards242200
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1920
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties9575
Yards898622
Yards / Game69.147.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0630:38
Third Downs
Attempts165189
Conversions7862
Conversion %47.3%32.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1623
Conversions815
Conversion %50.0%65.2%
Red Zone
Trips4737
Scores (TD + FG)4029
Score %85.1%78.4%
Touchdowns3517
TD %74.5%45.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1026
Made817
Pct80.0%65.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5720
Made5719
Pct100.0%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →