Fourth Down Data
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WIS

Wisconsin

BadgersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference13-1#4 (+28.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
95· ARating
59· CPer play
68· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
96· AConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
68· C3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.122
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.234
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.288
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
38.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.295
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.89
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
model 29 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
59th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4312James Madison2022OA +0.014 / +0.183similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3973App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3704Alabama2024OA +0.011 / +0.045similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3695Old Dominion2025OA +0.042 / +0.162similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense357

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Utah State59-10W-6.5W46O
2vs Florida Atlantic31-14W-34.5L59.5U
3@ BYU40-6W-14.0W41.5O
5vs Northwestern33-24W-16.5L51O
6@ Nebraska38-17W-12.5W47O
7vs Purdue17-9W-17.0L49.5U
8vs Maryland38-13W-24.0W50O
9@ Illinois24-10W-28.5L51.5U
10@ Indiana45-17W-11.0W49O
11vs Iowa38-14W-12.5W45O
12vs Michigan24-10W-6.5W41U
13@ Minnesota31-0W-19.5W44U
14vs Ohio State21-27L+3.5L51U
18@ Miami34-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS8-4
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off41thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off69thPass Def100thRush Def95thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01764th-0.274100th
Red Zone+0.12074th-0.58399th
Third Down+0.09869th-0.51698th
No Garbage Time+0.00357th-0.29198th
First Half-0.03146th-0.24197th
Second Half+0.06480th-0.30999th
Early Downs-0.07035th-0.16190th
Passing Downs+0.18589th-0.385100th
Standard Downs-0.05741th-0.20095th
Goal to Go-0.06340th-0.752100th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.1%Rush 65.9%
Havoc/Game
17.0
Havoc Rate
27.9%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
415.0
Pts/Drive
2.50
3rd Down%
48.6%
3&Out%
19.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWisconsinOpponents
Scoring
Points473195
Points / Game33.813.9
First Downs
Total296196
Rushing14879
Passing12897
Penalty2020
Rushing
Attempts629436
Yards3,1211,378
Yards / Carry5.03.2
Yards / Game222.998.4
Touchdowns287
Passing
Attempts325395
Completions204192
Completion %62.8%48.6%
Yards2,6892,291
Yards / Attempt8.35.8
Touchdowns2511
Interceptions1520
Passer Rating148.4296.39
Total Offense
Plays954831
Yards5,8103,669
Yards / Play6.14.4
Yards / Game415.0262.1
Punt Returns
Returns2418
Yards206132
Average8.67.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3529
Yards733565
Average20.919.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6284
Yards2,4413,495
Average39.441.6
Interception Returns
Returns2015
Yards346255
Touchdowns53
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties7576
Yards703659
Yards / Game50.247.1
Time of Possession
Per Game35:2924:31
Third Downs
Attempts185189
Conversions9055
Conversion %48.6%29.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts617
Conversions411
Conversion %66.7%64.7%
Red Zone
Trips6235
Scores (TD + FG)5325
Score %85.5%71.4%
Touchdowns4111
TD %66.1%31.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1824
Made1616
Pct88.9%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5921
Made5921
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →