Fourth Down Data
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UCLA

UCLA

BruinsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference1-0#4 (+12.29)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
96· ARating
92· A-Per play
59· CConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
80· BRating
46· CPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.349
Defensive EPA/play
-0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.9%
Def Success Rate
37.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
33.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.397
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 22 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where UCLA ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2026OA +0.102 / -0.012similar: passing offense, pass defense, havoc rate3352Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3113Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3094UAB2021OA +0.088 / +0.022similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, havoc rate3065Louisiana2020OA +0.039 / +0.022similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA304

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ California45-24W-2.5W53.5O
2vs San Diego State------
3vs Purdue------
4@ Maryland------
6@ Oregon------
7vs Wisconsin------
8vs Michigan State------
9vs Nevada------
10@ Minnesota------
11vs Illinois------
12@ Michigan------
13vs USC------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off14thRush Off100thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off79thPass Def34thRush Def56thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.34993th-0.04848th
Red Zone+0.15258th+0.19335th
Third Down+0.57379th+0.7467th
No Garbage Time+0.35894th-0.04445th
First Half+0.36693th+0.03932th
Second Half+0.32686th-0.12956th
Early Downs+0.39097th-0.10353th
Passing Downs-0.34514th+0.05834th
Standard Downs+0.570100th-0.12656th
Goal to Go+1.91599th+0.19361th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
461.0
Pts/Drive
3.21
3rd Down%
54.5%
3&Out%
28.6%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — UCLA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCLAOpponents
Scoring
Points4524
Points / Game45.024.0
First Downs
Total2023
Rushing106
Passing713
Penalty34
Rushing
Attempts3240
Yards277119
Yards / Carry8.73.0
Yards / Game277.0119.0
Touchdowns61
Passing
Attempts2247
Completions1426
Completion %63.6%55.3%
Yards184291
Yards / Attempt8.46.2
Touchdowns02
Interceptions12
Passer Rating124.80112.86
Total Offense
Plays5487
Yards461410
Yards / Play8.54.7
Yards / Game461.0410.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards123
Average12.03.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns22
Yards5638
Average28.019.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts53
Yards215138
Average43.046.0
Interception Returns
Returns21
Yards190
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles12
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties126
Yards11059
Yards / Game110.059.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:1134:49
Third Downs
Attempts1121
Conversions611
Conversion %54.5%52.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts03
Conversions00
Conversion %—0.0%
Red Zone
Trips54
Scores (TD + FG)44
Score %80.0%100.0%
Touchdowns33
TD %60.0%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made11
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts63
Made63
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →