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TOL
Toledo
RocketsBalancedMid-American Conference8-5#50 (+4.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
63· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
36· DPer play
63· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
97· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.040
Defensive EPA/play
-0.216
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
39.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.039
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.63
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#7
market 43 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense32th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play36th
Defensive EPA/play98th
Offensive success rate62th
Explosiveness47th
Defensive havoc97th
Points per drive53th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA4162Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: rushing offense, pass defense, havoc rate4133Georgia Southern2026OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4094UCLA2023OA +0.005 / +0.188similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3945Texas A&M2026OA -0.017 / +0.099similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA394
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Kentucky | 16-24 | L | +10.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Western Kentucky | 45-21 | W | -7.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Morgan State | 60-0 | W | -62.5 | L | 69 | U |
| 4 | @ Western Michigan | 13-14 | L | -12.5 | L | 28.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Akron | 45-3 | W | -38.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Bowling Green | 23-28 | L | -10.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 8 | vs Kent State | 45-10 | W | -25.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Washington State | 7-28 | L | +7.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Northern Illinois | 42-3 | W | -4.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Miami (OH) | 24-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Ball State | 38-9 | W | -34.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Central Michigan | 21-3 | W | -11.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Louisville | 22-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.026 | 39th | -0.199 | 99th |
| Red Zone | -0.160 | 18th | -0.112 | 73th |
| Third Down | -0.001 | 37th | -0.304 | 99th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.010 | 47th | -0.209 | 97th |
| First Half | +0.004 | 47th | -0.266 | 99th |
| Second Half | -0.059 | 27th | -0.130 | 90th |
| Early Downs | +0.009 | 56th | -0.116 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | -0.098 | 27th | -0.263 | 96th |
| Standard Downs | +0.011 | 53th | -0.160 | 95th |
| Goal to Go | -0.034 | 50th | -0.030 | 52th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.8%Rush 54.2%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
24.4%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
415.2
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
19.1%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 401 | 173 |
| Points / Game | 30.8 | 13.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 275 | 191 |
| Rushing | 113 | 82 |
| Passing | 146 | 81 |
| Penalty | 16 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 472 | 467 |
| Yards | 2,303 | 1,252 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| Yards / Game | 177.2 | 96.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 399 | 353 |
| Completions | 256 | 177 |
| Completion % | 64.2% | 50.1% |
| Yards | 3,095 | 2,054 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 146.64 | 101.94 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 871 | 820 |
| Yards | 5,398 | 3,306 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 415.2 | 254.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 22 |
| Yards | 385 | 90 |
| Average | 11.3 | 4.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 24 |
| Yards | 506 | 541 |
| Average | 22.0 | 22.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 83 |
| Yards | 2,591 | 3,440 |
| Average | 39.9 | 41.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 10 |
| Yards | 143 | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 14 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 111 | 64 |
| Yards | 971 | 495 |
| Yards / Game | 74.7 | 38.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:15 | 29:34 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 183 |
| Conversions | 70 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 40.2% | 29.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 30 |
| Conversions | 4 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 23.5% | 43.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 20 |
| Score % | 75.0% | 69.0% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 16 |
| TD % | 61.5% | 55.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 10 |
| Made | 10 | 7 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 21 |
| Made | 49 | 18 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 85.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.