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UCLA
UCLA
BruinsBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#30 (+5.09)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
51· CRating
41· CPer play
70· BConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
95· APer play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
32· D3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.188
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.179
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
39.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.163
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#34
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
model 1 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UCLA ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense54th
Opp-adjusted defense98th
Offensive EPA/play41th
Defensive EPA/play96th
Offensive success rate63th
Explosiveness55th
Defensive havoc96th
Points per drive46th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3952Old Dominion2025OA +0.042 / +0.162similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate3753Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3664Georgia Southern2026OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense3515Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate348
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Coastal Carolina | 27-13 | W | -14.5 | L | 66 | U |
| 2 | @ San Diego State | 35-10 | W | -13.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 3 | vs North Carolina Central | 59-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Utah | 7-14 | L | +6.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Washington State | 25-17 | W | -3.5 | W | 59.25 | U |
| 7 | @ Oregon State | 24-36 | L | +4.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Stanford | 42-7 | W | -17.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 9 | vs Colorado | 28-16 | W | -17.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Arizona | 10-27 | L | -2.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 11 | vs Arizona State | 7-17 | L | -17.0 | L | 44.25 | U |
| 12 | @ USC | 38-20 | W | +6.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 13 | vs California | 7-33 | L | -9.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 16 | @ Boise State | 35-22 | W | -2.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.023 | 37th | -0.153 | 96th |
| Red Zone | -0.326 | 2th | -0.306 | 99th |
| Third Down | +0.099 | 32th | +0.274 | 24th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.017 | 37th | -0.177 | 97th |
| First Half | -0.057 | 26th | -0.158 | 95th |
| Second Half | +0.011 | 51th | -0.147 | 92th |
| Early Downs | -0.075 | 31th | -0.223 | 97th |
| Passing Downs | -0.050 | 24th | -0.024 | 76th |
| Standard Downs | -0.009 | 53th | -0.228 | 97th |
| Goal to Go | -0.144 | 19th | -0.639 | 98th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
24.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
427.1
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
45.1%
3&Out%
18.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — UCLA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UCLA | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 344 | 239 |
| Points / Game | 26.5 | 18.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 280 | 223 |
| Rushing | 130 | 68 |
| Passing | 133 | 130 |
| Penalty | 17 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 527 | 396 |
| Yards | 2,573 | 1,050 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| Yards / Game | 197.9 | 80.8 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 5 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 410 | 450 |
| Completions | 238 | 273 |
| Completion % | 58.0% | 60.7% |
| Yards | 2,979 | 2,870 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 131.57 | 119.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 937 | 846 |
| Yards | 5,552 | 3,920 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 427.1 | 301.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 15 |
| Yards | 123 | 81 |
| Average | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 22 |
| Yards | 428 | 479 |
| Average | 20.4 | 21.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 48 | 68 |
| Yards | 2,018 | 2,891 |
| Average | 42.0 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 14 |
| Yards | 108 | 257 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 15 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 72 |
| Yards | 755 | 621 |
| Yards / Game | 58.1 | 47.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:01 | 30:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 195 | 189 |
| Conversions | 88 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 45.1% | 35.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 19 |
| Conversions | 15 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 46.9% | 42.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 60 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 32 |
| Score % | 63.3% | 82.1% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 14 |
| TD % | 51.7% | 35.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 26 |
| Made | 8 | 22 |
| Pct | 47.1% | 84.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 23 |
| Made | 44 | 23 |
| Pct | 97.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.