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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdBalanced
Sun Belt Conference9-4#60 (+1.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
28· DRating
20· DPer play
38· DConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
86· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.082
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.088
Defensive EPA/play
-0.118
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.63
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 4 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Southern Miss2022OA -0.126 / +0.054similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4062Utah2020OA -0.020 / +0.040similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3983Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3844Louisville2022OA -0.010 / +0.144similar: offensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate3815Clemson2021OA -0.044 / +0.202similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, run defense377

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Miami (OH)35-28W-3.5W51O
2vs Eastern Kentucky32-16W-32.5L--
4vs NC State20-37L+6.0L56O
5@ Western Kentucky20-17W-3.5L52U
6vs Middle Tennessee24-34L-3.0L50.5O
7@ Old Dominion42-20W-3.5W57O
8vs Florida Atlantic31-7W+2.5W59.5U
10@ Southern Miss24-26L-3.0L47.5O
11vs Charlotte30-13W-13.0W42O
12vs UTSA23-0W-27.5L48U
13@ Florida International28-25W-3.5L52.5O
14@ Virginia Tech20-41L+3.5L51.5O
17@ South Florida38-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off34thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off19thPass Def80thRush Def89thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07420th-0.12390th
Red Zone-0.20212th-0.15180th
Third Down-0.09919th-0.12083th
No Garbage Time-0.09118th-0.12889th
First Half-0.12017th-0.17492th
Second Half-0.02936th-0.06777th
Early Downs-0.04630th-0.11792th
Passing Downs-0.16210th-0.12280th
Standard Downs-0.03034th-0.12489th
Goal to Go-0.03332th-0.16979th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
393.6
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points367284
Points / Game28.221.8
First Downs
Total260242
Rushing11479
Passing129130
Penalty1733
Rushing
Attempts475459
Yards2,1521,355
Yards / Carry4.53.0
Yards / Game165.5104.2
Touchdowns2214
Passing
Attempts433454
Completions240256
Completion %55.4%56.4%
Yards2,9653,048
Yards / Attempt6.86.7
Touchdowns2017
Interceptions1312
Passer Rating122.18119.85
Total Offense
Plays908913
Yards5,1174,403
Yards / Play5.64.8
Yards / Game393.6338.7
Punt Returns
Returns2619
Yards278155
Average10.78.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4238
Yards789800
Average18.821.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6977
Yards2,7153,126
Average39.340.6
Interception Returns
Returns1213
Yards153231
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1520
Lost1112
Penalties
Penalties8585
Yards787722
Yards / Game60.555.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4530:15
Third Downs
Attempts189199
Conversions7663
Conversion %40.2%31.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1725
Conversions1111
Conversion %64.7%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips5947
Scores (TD + FG)4639
Score %78.0%83.0%
Touchdowns3124
TD %52.5%51.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2124
Made1518
Pct71.4%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4631
Made4430
Pct95.7%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →