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MSU
Michigan State
SpartansBalancedBig Ten Conference7-6#43 (+5.72)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
68· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
18· DPer play
11· FConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
81· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.106
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.096
Defensive EPA/play
-0.105
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.2%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#25
recruiting 18 spots higher
20 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense43th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play19th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate8th
Explosiveness34th
Defensive havoc94th
Points per drive22th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate4342Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA4013Oklahoma2024OA -0.049 / +0.067similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3894Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3855Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate384
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Tulsa | 28-7 | W | -4.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 2 | vs Western Michigan | 51-17 | W | -14.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Arizona State | 7-10 | L | -15.5 | L | 42 | U |
| 4 | @ Northwestern | 31-10 | W | -7.5 | W | 35 | O |
| 5 | vs Indiana | 40-31 | W | -14.0 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Ohio State | 10-34 | L | +19.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 7 | @ Wisconsin | 0-38 | L | +8.0 | L | 39 | U |
| 9 | vs Penn State | 7-28 | L | +5.5 | L | 41 | U |
| 11 | vs Illinois | 34-37 | L | -15.0 | L | 47 | O |
| 12 | @ Michigan | 10-44 | L | +14.0 | L | 44 | O |
| 13 | @ Rutgers | 27-0 | W | -22.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Maryland | 19-16 | W | -22.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 18 | @ Wake Forest | 27-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS0-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.108 | 13th | -0.092 | 81th |
| Red Zone | -0.313 | 7th | -0.129 | 74th |
| Third Down | -0.056 | 30th | -0.095 | 76th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.083 | 22th | -0.094 | 80th |
| First Half | -0.065 | 27th | -0.052 | 65th |
| Second Half | -0.155 | 10th | -0.136 | 93th |
| Early Downs | -0.109 | 13th | -0.022 | 62th |
| Passing Downs | -0.089 | 28th | -0.214 | 94th |
| Standard Downs | -0.120 | 14th | -0.012 | 55th |
| Goal to Go | -0.154 | 34th | -0.255 | 78th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
371.9
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
36.5%
3&Out%
21.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 291 | 293 |
| Points / Game | 22.4 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 225 |
| Rushing | 99 | 85 |
| Passing | 148 | 115 |
| Penalty | 27 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 468 | 440 |
| Yards | 1,653 | 1,479 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 127.2 | 113.8 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 464 | 403 |
| Completions | 270 | 241 |
| Completion % | 58.2% | 59.8% |
| Yards | 3,182 | 2,702 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 121.42 | 129.82 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 932 | 843 |
| Yards | 4,835 | 4,181 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 371.9 | 321.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 25 |
| Yards | 167 | 231 |
| Average | 6.4 | 9.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 40 |
| Yards | 454 | 867 |
| Average | 18.9 | 21.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,721 | 3,179 |
| Average | 42.5 | 43.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 124 | 195 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 23 |
| Lost | 9 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 88 |
| Yards | 700 | 836 |
| Yards / Game | 53.8 | 64.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:24 | 28:36 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 192 | 184 |
| Conversions | 70 | 64 |
| Conversion % | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 21 |
| Conversions | 13 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 61.9% | 47.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 29 |
| Score % | 75.9% | 76.3% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 20 |
| TD % | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 15 |
| Made | 22 | 12 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 36 |
| Made | 31 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.