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OKST
Oklahoma State
CowboysRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference8-3#37 (+3.58)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
71· BOverall
Offense
44· CRating
39· DPer play
41· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
83· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.078
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.058
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.071
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.89
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.68
own return game
Return Defense
+0.85
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#25
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 15 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense47th
Opp-adjusted defense86th
Offensive EPA/play40th
Defensive EPA/play84th
Offensive success rate38th
Explosiveness40th
Defensive havoc88th
Points per drive28th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Pittsburgh2020OA -0.017 / +0.037similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4402Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: defensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate4343Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, havoc rate4254Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA4065Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense404
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs Tulsa | 16-7 | W | -23.5 | L | 66 | U |
| 4 | vs West Virginia | 27-13 | W | -7.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Kansas | 47-7 | W | -22.5 | W | 54 | P |
| 8 | vs Iowa State | 24-21 | W | -3.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Texas | 34-41 | L | -3.3 | L | 59 | O |
| 10 | @ Kansas State | 20-18 | W | -12.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 12 | @ Oklahoma | 13-41 | L | +7.0 | L | 59.75 | U |
| 13 | vs Texas Tech | 50-44 | W | -11.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 14 | @ TCU | 22-29 | L | -1.0 | L | 51 | P |
| 15 | @ Baylor | 42-3 | W | -5.5 | W | 49 | U |
| 18 | @ Miami | 37-34 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
3-6-2
33.3%
Straight Up
8-3
72.7%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.015 | 41th | -0.088 | 85th |
| Red Zone | -0.085 | 31th | -0.086 | 69th |
| Third Down | +0.026 | 47th | -0.291 | 97th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.018 | 41th | -0.088 | 85th |
| First Half | +0.043 | 59th | -0.122 | 88th |
| Second Half | -0.078 | 22th | -0.053 | 73th |
| Early Downs | -0.061 | 30th | -0.116 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | +0.004 | 43th | -0.056 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | -0.026 | 38th | -0.106 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | -0.213 | 20th | -0.007 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
22.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
426.8
Pts/Drive
1.89
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
21.1%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 332 | 258 |
| Points / Game | 30.2 | 23.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 260 | 208 |
| Rushing | 114 | 88 |
| Passing | 116 | 99 |
| Penalty | 30 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 508 | 426 |
| Yards | 2,060 | 1,761 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 187.3 | 160.1 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 341 | 358 |
| Completions | 207 | 207 |
| Completion % | 60.7% | 57.8% |
| Yards | 2,635 | 2,408 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 137.17 | 127.56 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 849 | 784 |
| Yards | 4,695 | 4,169 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 426.8 | 379.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 12 |
| Yards | 109 | 28 |
| Average | 5.7 | 2.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 38 |
| Yards | 467 | 828 |
| Average | 18.0 | 21.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 75 |
| Yards | 2,493 | 3,131 |
| Average | 40.2 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 10 |
| Yards | 75 | 66 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 19 |
| Lost | 6 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 89 |
| Yards | 593 | 808 |
| Yards / Game | 53.9 | 73.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:58 | 30:02 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 166 |
| Conversions | 73 | 44 |
| Conversion % | 42.2% | 26.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 24 |
| Conversions | 5 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 25 |
| Score % | 81.6% | 86.2% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 17 |
| TD % | 49.0% | 58.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 17 |
| Made | 18 | 12 |
| Pct | 78.3% | 70.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 25 |
| Made | 36 | 24 |
| Pct | 92.3% | 96.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 7 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.