Fourth Down Data
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PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#47 (+2.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
43· CPer play
45· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
84· BPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.091
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.046
Defensive EPA/play
-0.116
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
39.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.33
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 25 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#35
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 6 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, passing offense4192Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA4063Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, pass defense3984Liberty2022OA -0.042 / +0.014similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3855Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense381

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs West Virginia38-31W----
2vs Tennessee27-34L+3.5L58.5O
3@ Western Michigan34-13W-11.0W47.5U
4vs Rhode Island45-24W-32.0L55.5O
5vs Georgia Tech21-26L-22.0L49U
6vs Virginia Tech45-29W-14.5W42O
8@ Louisville10-24L+2.5L55U
9@ North Carolina24-42L+3.0L65O
10vs Syracuse19-9W-3.5W48U
11@ Virginia37-7W-4.3W40O
12vs Duke28-26W-7.5L52.5O
13@ Miami42-16W-6.5W43.5O
18@ UCLA37-35W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off47thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off8thPass Def45thRush Def94thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04441th-0.09882th
Red Zone-0.00447th-0.24387th
Third Down-0.2308th-0.00465th
No Garbage Time-0.03744th-0.12187th
First Half-0.01744th-0.12783th
Second Half-0.06934th-0.07074th
Early Downs+0.01261th-0.14290th
Passing Downs-0.10327th-0.00845th
Standard Downs-0.01547th-0.16094th
Goal to Go-0.11935th-0.03751th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
17.7
Havoc Rate
27.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
405.3
Pts/Drive
2.13
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
20.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points407316
Points / Game31.324.3
First Downs
Total279227
Rushing14671
Passing119126
Penalty1430
Rushing
Attempts521384
Yards2,3791,274
Yards / Carry4.63.3
Yards / Game183.098.0
Touchdowns3013
Passing
Attempts391450
Completions223251
Completion %57.0%55.8%
Yards2,8903,015
Yards / Attempt7.46.7
Touchdowns1323
Interceptions1114
Passer Rating124.47122.70
Total Offense
Plays912834
Yards5,2694,289
Yards / Play5.85.1
Yards / Game405.3329.9
Punt Returns
Returns3319
Yards290102
Average8.85.4
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2820
Yards469298
Average16.814.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5874
Yards2,2283,067
Average38.441.4
Interception Returns
Returns1411
Yards215117
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles2618
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties9671
Yards828632
Yards / Game63.748.6
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1426:46
Third Downs
Attempts179180
Conversions7058
Conversion %39.1%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2022
Conversions910
Conversion %45.0%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips4748
Scores (TD + FG)3938
Score %83.0%79.2%
Touchdowns2827
TD %59.6%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2419
Made2016
Pct83.3%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4735
Made4734
Pct100.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →