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LIB
Liberty
FlamesBalancedConference USA8-5#61 (+1.20)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
55· COverall
Offense
44· CRating
32· DPer play
45· CConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
76· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.071
Defensive EPA/play
-0.092
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.143
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.27
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#38
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 14 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense38th
Opp-adjusted defense57th
Offensive EPA/play32th
Defensive EPA/play76th
Offensive success rate44th
Explosiveness38th
Defensive havoc97th
Points per drive44th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3852Old Dominion2026OA -0.079 / +0.013similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3733Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate3614Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3615Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA357
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Southern Miss | 29-27 | W | -3.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UAB | 21-14 | W | +6.0 | W | 50 | U |
| 3 | @ Wake Forest | 36-37 | L | +16.5 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Akron | 21-12 | W | -26.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Old Dominion | 38-24 | W | -3.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Massachusetts | 42-24 | W | -24.0 | L | 47 | O |
| 7 | vs Gardner-Webb | 21-20 | W | -24.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 8 | vs BYU | 41-14 | W | +6.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 10 | @ Arkansas | 21-19 | W | +13.5 | W | 63 | U |
| 11 | @ UConn | 33-36 | L | -14.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Virginia Tech | 22-23 | L | -10.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 13 | vs New Mexico State | 14-49 | L | -24.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 17 | @ Toledo | 19-21 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-7
Underdog ATS5-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.090 | 24th | -0.084 | 78th |
| Red Zone | +0.122 | 77th | -0.044 | 53th |
| Third Down | -0.023 | 32th | +0.049 | 51th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.069 | 33th | -0.095 | 79th |
| First Half | -0.100 | 27th | -0.100 | 77th |
| Second Half | -0.079 | 31th | -0.068 | 71th |
| Early Downs | -0.047 | 39th | -0.148 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | -0.172 | 13th | -0.043 | 63th |
| Standard Downs | -0.048 | 34th | -0.111 | 84th |
| Goal to Go | +0.041 | 62th | -0.124 | 62th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
18.5
Havoc Rate
25.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
389.2
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
19.8%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Liberty | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 358 | 320 |
| Points / Game | 27.5 | 24.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 266 | 242 |
| Rushing | 112 | 101 |
| Passing | 131 | 113 |
| Penalty | 23 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 493 | 516 |
| Yards | 2,244 | 1,902 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 172.6 | 146.3 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 396 | 391 |
| Completions | 230 | 230 |
| Completion % | 58.1% | 58.8% |
| Yards | 2,815 | 2,596 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 127.72 | 120.94 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 889 | 907 |
| Yards | 5,059 | 4,498 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 389.2 | 346.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 16 |
| Yards | 76 | 172 |
| Average | 4.0 | 10.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 39 | 22 |
| Yards | 807 | 401 |
| Average | 20.7 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,533 | 2,940 |
| Average | 40.9 | 40.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 15 |
| Yards | 88 | 113 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 18 |
| Lost | 12 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 89 |
| Yards | 696 | 737 |
| Yards / Game | 53.5 | 56.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:38 | 31:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 192 |
| Conversions | 64 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 36.6% | 34.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 30 |
| Conversions | 11 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 47.8% | 53.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 38 |
| Score % | 78.7% | 80.9% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 26 |
| TD % | 61.7% | 55.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 17 |
| Made | 11 | 15 |
| Pct | 57.9% | 88.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 33 |
| Made | 41 | 33 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 7 |
| Made | 2 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.