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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#89 (-1.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
27· DRating
40· CPer play
44· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
71· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.018
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.042
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.88
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense4572Indiana2020OA -0.011 / +0.044similar: passing offense, rushing offense, havoc rate4013New Mexico State2017OA -0.037 / -0.019similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3894Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3665Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: pass defense, rushing offense, run defense361

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Alabama30-26W-2.0W60.5U
2vs Southern54-17W-34.0W64.5O
4@ LSU21-38L+19.5W51O
5@ North Texas29-27W+7.0W62.5U
6vs UAB7-28L-7.0L57U
7@ UTSA31-3W-13.0W45.5U
8vs UTEP31-24W-21.0L50.5O
9@ Florida Atlantic21-13W+3.5W58.5U
10@ Mississippi State3-45L+23.0L49U
11vs Rice28-13W-24.0L53U
12@ Southern Miss20-21L+2.5W45.5U
13vs Western Kentucky15-30L-10.5L49U
17@ Hawai'i31-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off42thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off61thPass Def96thRush Def30thRed Zone Def18th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01739th-0.07476th
Red Zone+0.00446th+0.18418th
Third Down+0.10361th-0.10680th
No Garbage Time-0.01937th-0.07270th
First Half-0.04733th-0.14786th
Second Half+0.01554th+0.00448th
Early Downs-0.06723th-0.02954th
Passing Downs-0.00945th-0.25296th
Standard Downs-0.02242th+0.03630th
Goal to Go+0.03944th+0.28017th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.1%Rush 47.9%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
22.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
379.3
Pts/Drive
1.94
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points321299
Points / Game24.723.0
First Downs
Total270248
Rushing100116
Passing143113
Penalty2719
Rushing
Attempts438491
Yards1,6851,946
Yards / Carry3.84.0
Yards / Game129.6149.7
Touchdowns2223
Passing
Attempts477389
Completions271220
Completion %56.8%56.6%
Yards3,2462,491
Yards / Attempt6.86.4
Touchdowns1616
Interceptions1113
Passer Rating120.43117.23
Total Offense
Plays915880
Yards4,9314,437
Yards / Play5.45.0
Yards / Game379.3341.3
Punt Returns
Returns1014
Yards110118
Average11.08.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2643
Yards486928
Average18.721.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6773
Yards2,6882,939
Average40.140.3
Interception Returns
Returns1311
Yards14794
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1616
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties6073
Yards586740
Yards / Game45.156.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1529:45
Third Downs
Attempts188184
Conversions7565
Conversion %39.9%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions1117
Conversion %55.0%68.0%
Red Zone
Trips4834
Scores (TD + FG)4131
Score %85.4%91.2%
Touchdowns2924
TD %60.4%70.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2214
Made159
Pct68.2%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3937
Made3836
Pct97.4%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →