Fourth Down Data
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IU

Indiana

HoosiersBalanced
Big Ten Conference6-2#26 (+5.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
55· CRating
45· CPer play
51· CConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
87· BPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
-0.109
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.101
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 14 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#57
model 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
41th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate4192Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: passing offense, rushing offense, havoc rate4023Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3884Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3785Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate371

2020 Schedule & Results

8 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Penn State36-35W+5.5W60.5O
9@ Rutgers37-21W-11.0W53.5O
10vs Michigan38-21W+3.0W54.5O
11@ Michigan State24-0W-7.5W51.5U
12@ Ohio State35-42L+20.5W66.5O
13vs Maryland27-11W-11.5W63.5U
14@ Wisconsin14-6W+14.0W45.5U
18vs Ole Miss20-26L-8.0L65.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-1
87.5%
O/U Record
4-4
50.0%
Straight Up
6-2
75.0%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off45thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off24thPass Def95thRush Def73thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01145th-0.10087th
Red Zone-0.01552th-0.11276th
Third Down-0.07424th-0.11483th
No Garbage Time-0.02438th-0.10989th
First Half-0.08025th-0.21198th
Second Half+0.05964th+0.02151th
Early Downs+0.03265th-0.01462th
Passing Downs-0.01941th-0.18495th
Standard Downs-0.00645th-0.05173th
Goal to Go+0.07854th+0.27417th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
23.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
359.5
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 8 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points231162
Points / Game28.920.3
First Downs
Total162161
Rushing5661
Passing8691
Penalty209
Rushing
Attempts278272
Yards8691,097
Yards / Carry3.14.0
Yards / Game108.6137.1
Touchdowns127
Passing
Attempts292276
Completions168163
Completion %57.5%59.1%
Yards2,0071,928
Yards / Attempt6.97.0
Touchdowns1613
Interceptions517
Passer Rating129.93120.96
Total Offense
Plays570548
Yards2,8763,025
Yards / Play5.05.5
Yards / Game359.5378.1
Punt Returns
Returns94
Yards7331
Average8.17.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns623
Yards105473
Average17.520.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3938
Yards1,6931,698
Average43.444.7
Interception Returns
Returns175
Yards27095
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles86
Lost73
Penalties
Penalties3460
Yards358566
Yards / Game44.870.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1628:40
Third Downs
Attempts115112
Conversions4442
Conversion %38.3%37.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1513
Conversions84
Conversion %53.3%30.8%
Red Zone
Trips3525
Scores (TD + FG)2916
Score %82.9%64.0%
Touchdowns2312
TD %65.7%48.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1112
Made105
Pct90.9%41.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2518
Made2517
Pct100.0%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →