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BUF
Buffalo
BullsBalancedMid-American Conference7-6#92 (-2.68)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
32· DOverall
Offense
48· CRating
44· CPer play
39· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
73· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.22
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-1.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#78
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense32th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play44th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness29th
Defensive havoc84th
Points per drive52th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense4572Indiana2020OA -0.011 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate4193Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense3964Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3945Pittsburgh2020OA -0.017 / +0.037similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate394
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Maryland | 10-31 | L | +24.0 | W | 65 | U |
| 2 | vs Holy Cross | 31-37 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Coastal Carolina | 26-38 | L | +13.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 4 | @ Eastern Michigan | 50-31 | W | +6.0 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Miami (OH) | 24-20 | W | -1.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Bowling Green | 38-7 | W | -2.0 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Massachusetts | 34-7 | W | -17.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Toledo | 34-27 | W | +7.5 | W | 57 | O |
| 10 | @ Ohio | 24-45 | L | +1.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 11 | @ Central Michigan | 27-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Kent State | 27-30 | L | -11.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 14 | vs Akron | 23-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Georgia Southern | 23-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.037 | 43th | -0.091 | 81th |
| Red Zone | +0.086 | 68th | +0.005 | 46th |
| Third Down | +0.032 | 43th | -0.113 | 84th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.024 | 46th | -0.082 | 71th |
| First Half | +0.056 | 69th | -0.112 | 80th |
| Second Half | -0.127 | 16th | -0.069 | 72th |
| Early Downs | -0.056 | 34th | -0.087 | 79th |
| Passing Downs | -0.051 | 41th | -0.037 | 59th |
| Standard Downs | -0.030 | 44th | -0.122 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | -0.044 | 44th | -0.436 | 93th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
377.2
Pts/Drive
2.22
3rd Down%
39.3%
3&Out%
18.6%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 371 | 347 |
| Points / Game | 28.5 | 26.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 287 | 244 |
| Rushing | 120 | 95 |
| Passing | 143 | 123 |
| Penalty | 24 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 539 | 437 |
| Yards | 1,844 | 2,193 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 141.8 | 168.7 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 463 | 410 |
| Completions | 273 | 234 |
| Completion % | 59.0% | 57.1% |
| Yards | 3,059 | 2,949 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 123.83 | 126.44 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,002 | 847 |
| Yards | 4,903 | 5,142 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 377.2 | 395.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 19 |
| Yards | 10 | 253 |
| Average | 1.0 | 13.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 24 |
| Yards | 660 | 561 |
| Average | 20.6 | 23.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,427 | 2,475 |
| Average | 42.6 | 40.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 191 | 105 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 19 |
| Lost | 10 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 85 |
| Yards | 665 | 738 |
| Yards / Game | 51.2 | 56.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:36 | 26:20 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 211 | 173 |
| Conversions | 83 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 39.3% | 35.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 25 |
| Conversions | 22 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 61.1% | 44.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 40 |
| Score % | 90.7% | 87.0% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 30 |
| TD % | 62.8% | 65.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 14 |
| Made | 24 | 13 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 92.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 38 |
| Made | 41 | 38 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.