Fourth Down Data
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PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-5#40 (+3.20)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
40· CPer play
39· DConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
84· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.082
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
41.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.055
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#40
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 16 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4402Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3943Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3804Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3545Auburn2018OA +0.046 / +0.138similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA353

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Austin Peay55-0W----
3vs Syracuse21-10W-21.5L50U
4vs Louisville23-20W-3.0P55.5U
5vs NC State29-30L-14.0L47.5O
6@ Boston College30-31L-6.0L44O
7@ Miami19-31L+10.5L48.5O
8vs Notre Dame3-45L+10.0L43O
10@ Florida State41-17W+2.0W50.5O
12vs Virginia Tech47-14W+3.0W54O
13@ Clemson17-52L+23.0L55.25O
15@ Georgia Tech34-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-6-1
33.3%
O/U Record
7-3
70.0%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off27thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off18thPass Def67thRush Def91thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03732th-0.10688th
Red Zone+0.01555th-0.16684th
Third Down-0.13818th-0.13886th
No Garbage Time-0.00348th-0.09388th
First Half+0.02153th-0.01361th
Second Half-0.11114th-0.19895th
Early Downs-0.01546th-0.15093th
Passing Downs-0.00342th-0.03967th
Standard Downs-0.05627th-0.14991th
Goal to Go-0.05836th+0.02554th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
20.0
Havoc Rate
27.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
379.6
Pts/Drive
2.17
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
21.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points319270
Points / Game29.024.5
First Downs
Total227206
Rushing7376
Passing124101
Penalty3029
Rushing
Attempts389388
Yards1,3191,029
Yards / Carry3.42.7
Yards / Game119.993.5
Touchdowns2011
Passing
Attempts425377
Completions245211
Completion %57.6%56.0%
Yards2,8572,706
Yards / Attempt6.77.2
Touchdowns1423
Interceptions1214
Passer Rating119.34128.97
Total Offense
Plays814765
Yards4,1763,735
Yards / Play5.14.9
Yards / Game379.6339.5
Punt Returns
Returns199
Yards17983
Average9.49.2
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1721
Yards370372
Average21.817.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5467
Yards2,3682,778
Average43.941.5
Interception Returns
Returns1412
Yards15090
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2211
Lost46
Penalties
Penalties8873
Yards777622
Yards / Game70.656.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0928:42
Third Downs
Attempts173167
Conversions6359
Conversion %36.4%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1820
Conversions911
Conversion %50.0%55.0%
Red Zone
Trips4732
Scores (TD + FG)4224
Score %89.4%75.0%
Touchdowns2718
TD %57.4%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2913
Made239
Pct79.3%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3333
Made3233
Pct97.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →