Fourth Down Data
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Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference0-1#43 (+4.76)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
42· CRating
27· DPer play
54· CConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
48· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.066
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
15.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.31

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
52th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2024OA -0.005 / +0.004similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3542Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3433Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3404Miami2022OA -0.012 / -0.007similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3365Troy2021OA -0.126 / -0.004similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, run defense322

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Auburn16-17L+7.5W58.5U
2vs Prairie View A&M------
3vs Louisiana Tech------
4vs Colorado------
5@ Arizona State------
7vs TCU------
8@ Kansas------
9@ UCF------
10vs Iowa State------
11@ BYU------
12vs Texas Tech------
13@ Houston------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off9thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off26thPass Def72thRush Def29thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06627th-0.05150th
Red Zone-0.24224th+0.62315th
Third Down-0.21726th+0.18128th
No Garbage Time-0.06627th-0.05148th
First Half+0.00743th-0.00939th
Second Half-0.13528th-0.09753th
Early Downs-0.10428th-0.05245th
Passing Downs+0.39478th-0.23672th
Standard Downs-0.2869th+0.05729th
Goal to Go-0.26522th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.5%Rush 45.5%
Havoc/Game
23.0
Havoc Rate
29.9%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
436.0
Pts/Drive
1.31
3rd Down%
31.8%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points1617
Points / Game16.017.0
First Downs
Total2724
Rushing79
Passing1714
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts4541
Yards103130
Yards / Carry2.33.2
Yards / Game103.0130.0
Touchdowns02
Passing
Attempts5435
Completions2726
Completion %50.0%74.3%
Yards333259
Yards / Attempt6.27.4
Touchdowns20
Interceptions13
Passer Rating110.32119.30
Total Offense
Plays9976
Yards436389
Yards / Play4.45.1
Yards / Game436.0389.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards-32
Average-3.02.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts44
Yards208170
Average52.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns31
Yards106
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties56
Yards4047
Yards / Game40.047.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3227:28
Third Downs
Attempts2218
Conversions710
Conversion %31.8%55.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts61
Conversions40
Conversion %66.7%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %75.0%66.7%
Touchdowns22
TD %50.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made11
Pct50.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →