Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference7-6#67 (+1.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
55· CPer play
33· DConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
71· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
42.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.086
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.69
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#54
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
model 3 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
55th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nebraska2024OA +0.001 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense3772Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate3753South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3734West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3715Purdue2026OA +0.017 / +0.004similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate366

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kennesaw State28-16W-25.0L49.5U
2@ Texas State10-49L+2.0L60.5U
3@ Texas7-56L+35.5L56.5O
4vs Houston Christian45-7W----
5@ East Carolina20-30L+4.0L55.5U
7@ Rice27-29L-6.0L50.5O
8vs Florida Atlantic38-24W-3.5W54.5O
9@ Tulsa45-46L-8.0L54O
10vs Memphis44-36W+7.5W60.5O
12vs North Texas48-27W-16.5W56O
13vs Temple51-27W----
14@ Army24-29L+7.0W55U
17@ Coastal Carolina44-15W-31.0L40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off48thRush Off31thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off56thPass Def35thRush Def91thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def63th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02135th-0.06176th
Red Zone-0.00946th-0.19287th
Third Down+0.12956th+0.03363th
No Garbage Time+0.01652th-0.06072th
First Half+0.09378th-0.08574th
Second Half-0.1377th-0.03664th
Early Downs-0.02148th-0.09679th
Passing Downs+0.01648th+0.04635th
Standard Downs-0.04331th-0.12891th
Goal to Go+0.02751th-0.08766th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
18.1
Havoc Rate
25.9%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
451.2
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points431391
Points / Game33.230.1
First Downs
Total280244
Rushing9878
Passing158124
Penalty2442
Rushing
Attempts490461
Yards2,1801,421
Yards / Carry4.43.1
Yards / Game167.7109.3
Touchdowns2119
Passing
Attempts509416
Completions317242
Completion %62.3%58.2%
Yards3,6853,456
Yards / Attempt7.28.3
Touchdowns2728
Interceptions1311
Passer Rating135.49144.88
Total Offense
Plays999877
Yards5,8654,877
Yards / Play5.95.6
Yards / Game451.2375.2
Punt Returns
Returns1915
Yards8831
Average4.62.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1517
Yards492311
Average32.818.3
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5669
Yards2,2502,975
Average40.243.1
Interception Returns
Returns1113
Yards25247
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1321
Lost811
Penalties
Penalties11388
Yards1,054725
Yards / Game81.155.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0228:58
Third Downs
Attempts216183
Conversions8857
Conversion %40.7%31.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2833
Conversions1011
Conversion %35.7%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips5744
Scores (TD + FG)5034
Score %87.7%77.3%
Touchdowns3324
TD %57.9%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts3218
Made2415
Pct75.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4842
Made4740
Pct97.9%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts38
Made33
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →