Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference7-6#45 (+2.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
42· CRating
50· CPer play
61· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
83· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.105
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#42
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#28
recruiting 17 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA3932UTSA2024OA +0.005 / +0.018similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense3773Pittsburgh2025OA -0.006 / +0.103similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3504Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3485Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate341

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTEP40-7W-27.5W49U
2vs Colorado28-10W-7.0W57U
3vs Northern Iowa34-3W-7.5L42.5O
4vs Illinois24-31L----
5@ Purdue28-10W-10.0W47.5U
6vs Rutgers14-7W-7.0P40.5U
8@ Indiana7-56L+6.5L50.5O
9@ Ohio State17-21L+25.5W48.5U
10vs UCLA20-27L-6.5L40.5O
12@ USC20-28L+9.0W50.5U
13vs Wisconsin44-25W+5.5W39.5U
14@ Iowa10-13L----
18@ Boston College20-15W-10.5L36.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off35thRed Zone Off21th3rd Down Off21thPass Def67thRush Def86thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02832th-0.08580th
Red Zone-0.15121th-0.09667th
Third Down-0.03321th-0.03978th
No Garbage Time-0.00145th-0.10687th
First Half+0.03061th-0.10981th
Second Half-0.08615th-0.06078th
Early Downs-0.06624th-0.06968th
Passing Downs-0.01437th-0.06567th
Standard Downs-0.03535th-0.09686th
Goal to Go-0.12628th-0.11370th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.3%Rush 50.7%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
359.0
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
16.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points306253
Points / Game23.519.5
First Downs
Total283214
Rushing10969
Passing137121
Penalty3724
Rushing
Attempts448390
Yards1,6981,316
Yards / Carry3.83.4
Yards / Game130.6101.2
Touchdowns228
Passing
Attempts435379
Completions288242
Completion %66.2%63.9%
Yards2,9692,817
Yards / Attempt6.87.4
Touchdowns1323
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating127.88140.51
Total Offense
Plays883769
Yards4,6674,133
Yards / Play5.35.4
Yards / Game359.0317.9
Punt Returns
Returns1519
Yards73234
Average4.912.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2327
Yards427587
Average18.621.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5154
Yards2,0932,268
Average41.042.0
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards191145
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties8180
Yards691813
Yards / Game53.262.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0727:53
Third Downs
Attempts177159
Conversions7556
Conversion %42.4%35.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2327
Conversions911
Conversion %39.1%40.7%
Red Zone
Trips5337
Scores (TD + FG)4028
Score %75.5%75.7%
Touchdowns2921
TD %54.7%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made139
Pct68.4%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3730
Made3530
Pct94.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →