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PITT
Pittsburgh
PanthersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#42 (+5.43)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
69· COverall
Offense
59· CRating
41· CPer play
52· CConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
89· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.103
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.019
Defensive EPA/play
-0.137
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
40.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.104
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#45
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 16 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense52th
Opp-adjusted defense85th
Offensive EPA/play41th
Defensive EPA/play90th
Offensive success rate43th
Explosiveness87th
Defensive havoc83th
Points per drive57th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulsa2020OA -0.015 / +0.068similar: run defense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate4562SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3893Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3884Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3855Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate371
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Duquesne | 61-9 | W | -37.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Central Michigan | 45-17 | W | -22.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | @ West Virginia | 24-31 | L | +1.5 | L | 36.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Louisville | 27-34 | L | +3.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Boston College | 48-7 | W | -6.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 7 | @ Florida State | 34-31 | W | +10.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Syracuse | 30-13 | W | -9.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 9 | vs NC State | 53-34 | W | -12.5 | W | 78.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Stanford | 35-20 | W | -14.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Notre Dame | 15-37 | L | +12.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 13 | @ Georgia Tech | 42-28 | W | +2.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 14 | vs Miami | 7-38 | L | +7.0 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 18 | @ East Carolina | 17-23 | L | -10.5 | L | 53 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS6-1
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.036 | 37th | -0.130 | 91th |
| Red Zone | -0.243 | 7th | +0.026 | 42th |
| Third Down | +0.015 | 39th | -0.160 | 90th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.024 | 39th | -0.167 | 96th |
| First Half | +0.004 | 48th | -0.154 | 91th |
| Second Half | -0.084 | 21th | -0.107 | 84th |
| Early Downs | -0.025 | 41th | -0.080 | 76th |
| Passing Downs | -0.071 | 34th | -0.239 | 93th |
| Standard Downs | -0.017 | 41th | -0.060 | 70th |
| Goal to Go | -0.246 | 13th | +0.111 | 36th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.8%Rush 48.2%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
390.5
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
17.0%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 438 | 322 |
| Points / Game | 33.7 | 24.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 270 | 230 |
| Rushing | 84 | 88 |
| Passing | 150 | 119 |
| Penalty | 36 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 432 | 454 |
| Yards | 1,524 | 1,236 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Yards / Game | 117.2 | 95.1 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 464 | 431 |
| Completions | 289 | 271 |
| Completion % | 62.3% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 3,553 | 3,059 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 140.77 | 136.97 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 896 | 885 |
| Yards | 5,077 | 4,295 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 390.5 | 330.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 13 |
| Yards | 293 | 89 |
| Average | 14.7 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 31 |
| Yards | 601 | 655 |
| Average | 23.1 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 69 |
| Yards | 2,253 | 2,878 |
| Average | 44.2 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 15 |
| Yards | 372 | 223 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 10 |
| Lost | 8 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 95 | 102 |
| Yards | 871 | 945 |
| Yards / Game | 67.0 | 72.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:56 | 31:04 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 184 |
| Conversions | 59 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 32.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 30 |
| Conversions | 20 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 60.6% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 51 | 35 |
| Score % | 82.3% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 25 |
| TD % | 54.8% | 62.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 16 |
| Made | 21 | 12 |
| Pct | 80.8% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 39 |
| Made | 49 | 38 |
| Pct | 98.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.