Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference6-3#49 (+1.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
50· CRating
38· DPer play
33· DConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
96· APer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.068
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.022
Defensive EPA/play
-0.176
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.02

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.36
own return game
Return Defense
-0.41
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#49
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#60
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
32th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Pittsburgh2025OA -0.006 / +0.103similar: takeaway rate, run defense, defensive success rate4542Louisville2022OA -0.010 / +0.144similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4023Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3644Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: run defense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3625Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate359

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
3@ Oklahoma State7-16L+23.5W66U
5@ UCF34-26W+21.0W71U
8@ South Florida42-13W-17.0L60.5O
9vs East Carolina34-30W----
11vs SMU28-24W-5.0W55.5U
12vs Tulane30-24W----
14@ Navy19-6W-12.0W48.5U
16@ Cincinnati24-27L+14.5W45O
18@ Mississippi State26-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-2
77.8%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
6-3
66.7%
Home ATS2-1
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off27thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off45thPass Def95thRush Def95thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def93th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02538th-0.17499th
Red Zone-0.00853th-0.29194th
Third Down+0.01945th-0.20793th
No Garbage Time-0.02239th-0.17697th
First Half-0.2225th-0.267100th
Second Half+0.17091th-0.08778th
Early Downs-0.03237th-0.204100th
Passing Downs+0.04352th-0.19395th
Standard Downs-0.06227th-0.16395th
Goal to Go-0.4249th-0.37894th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
410.4
Pts/Drive
2.02
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
18.4%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points244194
Points / Game27.121.6
First Downs
Total199174
Rushing8376
Passing10575
Penalty1123
Rushing
Attempts356358
Yards1,4191,291
Yards / Carry4.03.6
Yards / Game157.7143.4
Touchdowns139
Passing
Attempts306280
Completions173170
Completion %56.5%60.7%
Yards2,2751,706
Yards / Attempt7.46.1
Touchdowns1510
Interceptions116
Passer Rating127.97119.39
Total Offense
Plays662638
Yards3,6942,997
Yards / Play5.64.7
Yards / Game410.4333.0
Punt Returns
Returns1513
Yards57203
Average3.815.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1636
Yards267859
Average16.723.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4245
Yards1,8061,800
Average43.040.0
Interception Returns
Returns611
Yards158190
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1012
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties8192
Yards742674
Yards / Game82.474.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4331:17
Third Downs
Attempts139137
Conversions5845
Conversion %41.7%32.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1716
Conversions98
Conversion %52.9%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3532
Scores (TD + FG)2824
Score %80.0%75.0%
Touchdowns1813
TD %51.4%40.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1622
Made1215
Pct75.0%68.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2721
Made2621
Pct96.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →