Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-3#19 (+14.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
72· BRating
33· DPer play
29· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
89· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.139
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.063
Defensive EPA/play
-0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
40.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.123
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#21
model 2 spots higher
25 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
89th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
68th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4392Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, pass defense3933Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3914Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3765South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, run defense375

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bowling Green35-10W-2.5W47O
2vs Western Michigan28-14W-7.0W51U
4vs Notre Dame18-38L+3.5L53.5O
5vs Iowa17-10W-3.5W44U
6@ Michigan14-10W+13.0W40U
7@ Minnesota30-27W-4.0L41O
8vs Indiana17-9W-6.5W47.5U
9@ Northwestern31-39L-1.5L41.5O
10vs Penn State27-24W+9.5W46O
11@ Ohio State3-48L+17.5L56U
12vs Maryland17-7W-14.0L44.5U
13@ Rutgers40-7W-13.5W43O
18vs Washington State42-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off33thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off58thPass Def79thRush Def97thRed Zone Def70th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08028th-0.18093th
Red Zone-0.07332th-0.10870th
Third Down+0.04258th-0.20679th
No Garbage Time-0.05934th-0.19295th
First Half-0.08626th-0.21896th
Second Half-0.07432th-0.13880th
Early Downs-0.09623th-0.20696th
Passing Downs-0.09727th-0.14179th
Standard Downs-0.07133th-0.20397th
Goal to Go-0.20922th-0.40193th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.7%Rush 56.3%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
383.1
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
17.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points319260
Points / Game24.520.0
First Downs
Total281206
Rushing11763
Passing139122
Penalty2521
Rushing
Attempts547368
Yards2,1821,239
Yards / Carry4.03.4
Yards / Game167.895.3
Touchdowns1812
Passing
Attempts424426
Completions247241
Completion %58.3%56.6%
Yards2,7982,630
Yards / Attempt6.66.2
Touchdowns2015
Interceptions814
Passer Rating125.48113.48
Total Offense
Plays971794
Yards4,9803,869
Yards / Play5.14.9
Yards / Game383.1297.6
Punt Returns
Returns2112
Yards8231
Average3.92.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3347
Yards706982
Average21.420.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6977
Yards2,8953,236
Average42.042.0
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards151119
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2517
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties8463
Yards768592
Yards / Game59.145.5
Time of Possession
Per Game35:1924:41
Third Downs
Attempts207174
Conversions9357
Conversion %44.9%32.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1915
Conversions119
Conversion %57.9%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips5131
Scores (TD + FG)4227
Score %82.4%87.1%
Touchdowns3018
TD %58.8%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1915
Made1514
Pct78.9%93.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3830
Made3830
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →