Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#14 (+17.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
50· CRating
31· DPer play
51· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
92· A-Per play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.191
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.064
Defensive EPA/play
-0.189
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
38.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.125
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#36
model 22 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive success rate4852Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4613Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, havoc rate4254Northern Illinois2024OA -0.015 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3995Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA393

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs West Virginia31-24W+5.5L61.5U
2vs Delaware27-0W-41.0L--
3@ East Carolina64-17W-27.0W60O
4vs Old Dominion38-0W-28.5W53U
5vs Clemson17-31L+7.0L48.5U
6@ Boston College23-10W-16.0L48U
8vs North Carolina59-7W-20.5W53.5O
9vs Duke24-3W-17.5W48U
10@ Miami10-28L+2.0L50U
11@ Georgia Tech22-28L-2.5L48O
12vs Pittsburgh20-14W-14.0L49.5U
13@ Virginia10-0W-7.0W48.5U
18@ Oklahoma State21-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off48thRush Off38thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off47thPass Def78thRush Def99thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05134th-0.20398th
Red Zone-0.18811th-0.38496th
Third Down-0.02247th-0.18074th
No Garbage Time-0.06432th-0.19094th
First Half-0.05840th-0.19491th
Second Half-0.04340th-0.21596th
Early Downs-0.02455th-0.20697th
Passing Downs-0.03048th-0.14178th
Standard Downs-0.06138th-0.24899th
Goal to Go-0.09434th-0.55298th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.4%Rush 58.6%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
24.1%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
412.8
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points366192
Points / Game28.214.8
First Downs
Total288200
Rushing12683
Passing142101
Penalty2016
Rushing
Attempts584462
Yards2,2541,554
Yards / Carry3.93.4
Yards / Game173.4119.5
Touchdowns197
Passing
Attempts412358
Completions245174
Completion %59.5%48.6%
Yards3,1132,597
Yards / Attempt7.67.3
Touchdowns2116
Interceptions913
Passer Rating135.39117.02
Total Offense
Plays996820
Yards5,3674,151
Yards / Play5.45.1
Yards / Game412.8319.3
Punt Returns
Returns3912
Yards41347
Average10.63.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2616
Yards613288
Average23.618.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6692
Yards2,7983,785
Average42.441.1
Interception Returns
Returns139
Yards267126
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties6082
Yards548626
Yards / Game42.248.2
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4127:19
Third Downs
Attempts211187
Conversions8649
Conversion %40.8%26.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2623
Conversions1110
Conversion %42.3%43.5%
Red Zone
Trips5729
Scores (TD + FG)4421
Score %77.2%72.4%
Touchdowns2913
TD %50.9%44.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2615
Made188
Pct69.2%53.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4224
Made4224
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →