Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference8-5#54 (+2.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
30· DRating
31· DPer play
38· DConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
89· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
33· D3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
-0.132
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.095
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.090
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.81
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.76
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#34
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
32th
Opp-adjusted defense
89th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3992TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3863Arizona State2025OA +0.006 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3714Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: passing offense, rushing offense, turnover rate3675Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA363

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Illinois54-15W-34.5W53.5O
2@ Notre Dame16-14W+30.0W45.75U
4vs Buffalo20-23L-13.5L43P
5@ NC State17-24L+6.5L46.5U
6vs Massachusetts34-20W-17.5L44O
7@ Bowling Green17-7W+3.0W47.5U
8vs Toledo6-13L-2.5L43U
9@ Ball State23-25L-12.0L48.5U
11@ Western Michigan42-28W-15.0L45P
12vs Akron29-16W+1.5L43U
13@ Miami (OH)9-20L----
14vs Central Michigan24-16W-12.5L44.5U
17@ Fresno State28-20W-3.0W40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
4-7-2
36.4%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off18thRush Off57thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off33thPass Def91thRush Def82thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02931th-0.12291th
Red Zone-0.05436th-0.26393th
Third Down+0.01833th-0.15290th
No Garbage Time-0.03731th-0.14194th
First Half-0.00844th-0.08272th
Second Half-0.04823th-0.16599th
Early Downs+0.02868th-0.01142th
Passing Downs-0.12218th-0.17491th
Standard Downs+0.01957th-0.08982th
Goal to Go+0.04054th-0.11371th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
382.2
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
11.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points319241
Points / Game24.518.5
First Downs
Total279213
Rushing13789
Passing11599
Penalty2725
Rushing
Attempts562412
Yards2,6491,458
Yards / Carry4.73.5
Yards / Game203.8112.2
Touchdowns2210
Passing
Attempts371372
Completions216200
Completion %58.2%53.8%
Yards2,3202,242
Yards / Attempt6.36.0
Touchdowns1615
Interceptions89
Passer Rating120.67112.86
Total Offense
Plays933784
Yards4,9693,700
Yards / Play5.34.7
Yards / Game382.2284.6
Punt Returns
Returns126
Yards9520
Average7.93.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2040
Yards484781
Average24.219.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4565
Yards1,6772,612
Average37.340.2
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards15095
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2013
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties5567
Yards556592
Yards / Game42.845.5
Time of Possession
Per Game33:2126:39
Third Downs
Attempts193165
Conversions8144
Conversion %42.0%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3326
Conversions1513
Conversion %45.5%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3836
Scores (TD + FG)3328
Score %86.8%77.8%
Touchdowns2116
TD %55.3%44.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2628
Made1718
Pct65.4%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3225
Made2823
Pct87.5%92.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts92
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →