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ASU
Arizona State
Sun DevilsBalancedBig 12 Conference8-5#48 (+4.24)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
65· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
50· CPer play
33· DConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
70· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.002
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#56
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 10 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense56th
Opp-adjusted defense82th
Offensive EPA/play50th
Defensive EPA/play70th
Offensive success rate33th
Explosiveness44th
Defensive havoc89th
Points per drive38th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: havoc rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3902Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3793Northern Illinois2024OA -0.015 / +0.050similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3714App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3665Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate361
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northern Arizona | 38-19 | W | -29.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Mississippi State | 20-24 | L | -6.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 3 | vs Texas State | 34-15 | W | -17.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Baylor | 27-24 | W | -3.0 | P | 54.5 | U |
| 5 | vs TCU | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Utah | 10-42 | L | +9.5 | L | 44 | O |
| 8 | vs Texas Tech | 26-22 | W | +1.5 | W | 40 | O |
| 9 | vs Houston | 16-24 | L | -7.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Iowa State | 24-19 | W | +7.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs West Virginia | 25-23 | W | -11.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Colorado | 42-17 | W | +1.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 14 | vs Arizona | 7-23 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | @ Duke | 39-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.011 | 54th | -0.056 | 65th |
| Red Zone | -0.111 | 26th | -0.174 | 82th |
| Third Down | +0.178 | 69th | -0.034 | 70th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.007 | 53th | -0.070 | 70th |
| First Half | -0.053 | 30th | -0.097 | 80th |
| Second Half | +0.076 | 79th | -0.015 | 50th |
| Early Downs | -0.007 | 49th | -0.057 | 68th |
| Passing Downs | +0.008 | 56th | -0.112 | 79th |
| Standard Downs | +0.012 | 54th | -0.026 | 55th |
| Goal to Go | -0.184 | 21th | -0.384 | 89th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
417.3
Pts/Drive
2.06
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
15.2%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arizona State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 335 | 318 |
| Points / Game | 25.8 | 24.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 253 |
| Rushing | 122 | 96 |
| Passing | 123 | 130 |
| Penalty | 29 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 498 | 447 |
| Yards | 2,517 | 1,612 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 193.6 | 124.0 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 430 | 459 |
| Completions | 251 | 277 |
| Completion % | 58.4% | 60.3% |
| Yards | 2,908 | 3,035 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 126.34 | 126.78 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 928 | 906 |
| Yards | 5,425 | 4,647 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 417.3 | 357.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 17 |
| Yards | 132 | 252 |
| Average | 9.4 | 14.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 24 |
| Yards | 277 | 468 |
| Average | 17.3 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 60 |
| Yards | 1,919 | 2,628 |
| Average | 39.2 | 43.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 9 |
| Yards | 16 | 29 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 11 |
| Lost | 12 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 73 |
| Yards | 751 | 701 |
| Yards / Game | 57.8 | 53.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:33 | 28:26 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 192 |
| Conversions | 62 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 37 |
| Conversions | 21 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 58.3% | 51.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 39 |
| Score % | 78.7% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 29 |
| TD % | 51.1% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 20 |
| Made | 22 | 14 |
| Pct | 73.3% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 35 |
| Made | 33 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 5 |
| Made | 4 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.