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APP
App State
MountaineersBalancedSun Belt Conference10-4#20 (+7.22)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
85· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
67· CPer play
67· CConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
82· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
35· D3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.052
Defensive EPA/play
-0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.138
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.61
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.59
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#11
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 52 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense59th
Opp-adjusted defense82th
Offensive EPA/play68th
Defensive EPA/play83th
Offensive success rate68th
Explosiveness44th
Defensive havoc95th
Points per drive80th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4132Wisconsin2019OA +0.091 / +0.160similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3983Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3974Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense3965UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA387
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs East Carolina | 33-19 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Miami | 23-25 | L | +8.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 3 | vs Elon | 44-10 | W | -35.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Marshall | 31-30 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Georgia State | 45-16 | W | -10.0 | W | 55.25 | O |
| 7 | @ Louisiana | 13-41 | L | +5.0 | W | 61 | U |
| 8 | vs Coastal Carolina | 30-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs UL Monroe | 59-28 | W | -27.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Arkansas State | 48-14 | W | -21.0 | W | 68 | U |
| 11 | vs South Alabama | 31-7 | W | -22.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Troy | 45-7 | W | -9.5 | W | 52 | P |
| 13 | vs Georgia Southern | 27-3 | W | -24.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Louisiana | 16-24 | L | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 16 | vs Western Kentucky | 38-59 | L | -2.5 | L | 67 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
4-8-1
33.3%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.058 | 73th | -0.073 | 78th |
| Red Zone | -0.062 | 43th | -0.312 | 93th |
| Third Down | +0.010 | 35th | -0.065 | 74th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.073 | 81th | -0.094 | 84th |
| First Half | +0.055 | 68th | -0.083 | 74th |
| Second Half | +0.063 | 79th | -0.063 | 68th |
| Early Downs | +0.042 | 68th | +0.016 | 35th |
| Passing Downs | +0.002 | 50th | -0.143 | 82th |
| Standard Downs | +0.087 | 83th | -0.033 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 46th | -0.505 | 92th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
442.0
Pts/Drive
2.61
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
16.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | App State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 483 | 310 |
| Points / Game | 34.5 | 22.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 318 | 255 |
| Rushing | 144 | 100 |
| Passing | 151 | 132 |
| Penalty | 23 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 567 | 481 |
| Yards | 2,701 | 1,710 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 192.9 | 122.1 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 413 | 442 |
| Completions | 255 | 251 |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 56.8% |
| Yards | 3,487 | 3,108 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 150.03 | 122.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 980 | 923 |
| Yards | 6,188 | 4,818 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 442.0 | 344.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 13 |
| Yards | 168 | 53 |
| Average | 6.7 | 4.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 44 |
| Yards | 1,141 | 837 |
| Average | 27.2 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 75 |
| Yards | 2,073 | 3,294 |
| Average | 40.6 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 12 |
| Yards | 347 | 110 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 13 |
| Lost | 14 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 73 |
| Yards | 744 | 682 |
| Yards / Game | 53.1 | 48.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:10 | 28:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 188 | 198 |
| Conversions | 68 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 36.2% | 34.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 24 |
| Conversions | 25 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 65.8% | 37.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 34 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 75.6% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 22 |
| TD % | 57.7% | 48.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 22 |
| Made | 20 | 17 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 77.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 57 | 37 |
| Made | 57 | 35 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.