Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-3#19 (+6.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
74· BPer play
89· BConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
82· BPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.099
Defensive EPA/play
-0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.9%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.014
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.95
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.23
own return game
Return Defense
-1.38
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#30
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
model 7 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
79th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2019OA +0.091 / +0.160similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, pass defense4362Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate4183Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA4094Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate4085BYU2025OA +0.104 / +0.062similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate403

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Louisiana14-31L-11.5L56U
4@ TCU37-34W-2.5W44O
5vs Oklahoma37-30W+7.0W63.5O
6vs Texas Tech31-15W-12.5W64.5U
8@ Oklahoma State21-24L+3.5W51.5U
9@ Kansas52-22W-28.0W52O
10vs Baylor38-31W-14.0L47.5O
12vs Kansas State45-0W+1.0W56.5U
13@ Texas23-20W----
14vs West Virginia42-6W-6.5W49.5U
16vs Oklahoma21-27L+5.8L58U
18vs Oregon34-17W-4.3W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off18thRush Off95thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off51thPass Def71thRush Def84thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def91th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09577th-0.07984th
Red Zone+0.01755th-0.16986th
Third Down+0.06551th-0.17591th
No Garbage Time+0.10780th-0.07582th
First Half+0.16886th+0.00852th
Second Half+0.01650th-0.16489th
Early Downs+0.13994th-0.05674th
Passing Downs-0.10918th-0.05471th
Standard Downs+0.18595th-0.09384th
Goal to Go-0.04837th-0.36191th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.0%Rush 55.0%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
436.3
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
45.3%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points395257
Points / Game32.921.4
First Downs
Total273217
Rushing11877
Passing136129
Penalty1911
Rushing
Attempts455383
Yards2,3401,237
Yards / Carry5.13.2
Yards / Game195.0103.1
Touchdowns3111
Passing
Attempts373378
Completions249237
Completion %66.8%62.7%
Yards2,8962,848
Yards / Attempt7.87.5
Touchdowns2014
Interceptions99
Passer Rating144.84133.45
Total Offense
Plays828761
Yards5,2364,085
Yards / Play6.35.4
Yards / Game436.3340.4
Punt Returns
Returns1116
Yards59176
Average5.411.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2156
Yards5631,244
Average26.822.2
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts4759
Yards1,9142,381
Average40.740.4
Interception Returns
Returns99
Yards1499
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles911
Lost58
Penalties
Penalties6174
Yards511608
Yards / Game42.650.7
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0526:55
Third Downs
Attempts161154
Conversions7351
Conversion %45.3%33.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1620
Conversions119
Conversion %68.8%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips5235
Scores (TD + FG)4426
Score %84.6%74.3%
Touchdowns3417
TD %65.4%48.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1922
Made1313
Pct68.4%59.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5028
Made4828
Pct96.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →