Fourth Down Data
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FRES

Fresno State

BulldogsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference10-4#20 (+5.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
70· BRating
63· CPer play
81· BConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
81· BPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.093
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.55
own return game
Return Defense
+0.57
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#29
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
55th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
82th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
85th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense4452Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate4183Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate4114Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive success rate4045Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: rushing offense, pass defense, takeaway rate393

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Cal Poly35-7W----
2vs Oregon State32-35L0.0L60O
3@ USC17-45L+11.3L74U
5@ UConn14-19L-24.0L52U
6@ Boise State20-40L+7.5L45.5O
7vs San José State17-10W+8.5W47U
8@ New Mexico41-9W-10.5W40.5O
9vs San Diego State32-28W-8.5L41O
10vs Hawai'i55-13W-24.5W62O
11@ UNLV37-30W----
12@ Nevada41-14W-15.0W50.25U
13vs Wyoming30-0W----
14@ Boise State28-16W+3.0W54.5U
16vs Washington State29-6W-4.0W53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off74thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off67thPass Def50thRush Def90thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03764th-0.08779th
Red Zone-0.10030th-0.19480th
Third Down+0.17167th+0.04353th
No Garbage Time+0.02863th-0.10181th
First Half+0.03460th-0.11582th
Second Half+0.04068th-0.05764th
Early Downs+0.03470th-0.11987th
Passing Downs-0.01249th-0.01850th
Standard Downs+0.05974th-0.13090th
Goal to Go+0.26286th-0.32583th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.4%Rush 49.6%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
402.6
Pts/Drive
2.56
3rd Down%
45.8%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFresno StateOpponents
Scoring
Points428272
Points / Game30.619.4
First Downs
Total309256
Rushing110109
Passing175121
Penalty2426
Rushing
Attempts466490
Yards1,8492,096
Yards / Carry4.04.3
Yards / Game132.1149.7
Touchdowns2817
Passing
Attempts473434
Completions336232
Completion %71.0%53.5%
Yards3,7882,650
Yards / Attempt8.06.1
Touchdowns2214
Interceptions912
Passer Rating149.85109.86
Total Offense
Plays939924
Yards5,6374,746
Yards / Play6.05.1
Yards / Game402.6339.0
Punt Returns
Returns1512
Yards26593
Average17.77.8
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3034
Yards673588
Average22.417.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5265
Yards2,1612,844
Average41.643.8
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards141100
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1015
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties6385
Yards561730
Yards / Game40.152.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0028:44
Third Downs
Attempts177202
Conversions8173
Conversion %45.8%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1534
Conversions717
Conversion %46.7%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips6545
Scores (TD + FG)5136
Score %78.5%80.0%
Touchdowns3522
TD %53.8%48.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2621
Made1819
Pct69.2%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5226
Made5025
Pct96.2%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →