Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference1-0#25 (+6.40)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
93· APer play
94· AConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
71· BPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
75· B3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.378
Defensive EPA/play
-0.233
lower = better
Off Success Rate
65.3%
Def Success Rate
33.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.611
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2026OA +0.069 / +0.042similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3532Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3473Nebraska2026OA +0.067 / -0.017similar: offensive EPA, run defense, turnover rate3374Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3295UConn2026OA +0.013 / +0.061similar: run defense, TD drive rate, passing offense327

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ball State56-3W-50.0W55.5O
2@ Texas------
3vs Kent State------
4vs Illinois------
5@ Iowa------
6vs Maryland------
7@ Indiana------
9@ USC------
10vs Oregon------
11vs Northwestern------
12@ Nebraska------
13vs Michigan------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off34thRush Off99thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off76thPass Def91thRush Def74thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.36696th-0.36090th
Red Zone+0.58588th-0th
Third Down+0.51376th-0.93196th
No Garbage Time+0.42796th-0.27577th
First Half+0.37895th-0.23371th
Second Half+0.35188th-0.49594th
Early Downs+0.43199th-0.25474th
Passing Downs-0.09134th-0.48091th
Standard Downs+0.54299th-0.25574th
Goal to Go+0.24742th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.4%Rush 48.6%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
24.2%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
671.0
Pts/Drive
4.67
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points563
Points / Game56.03.0
First Downs
Total3213
Rushing103
Passing228
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts3523
Yards23745
Yards / Carry6.82.0
Yards / Game237.045.0
Touchdowns30
Passing
Attempts3737
Completions3120
Completion %83.8%54.1%
Yards434120
Yards / Attempt11.73.2
Touchdowns50
Interceptions11
Passer Rating221.5075.89
Total Offense
Plays7260
Yards671165
Yards / Play9.32.8
Yards / Game671.0165.0
Punt Returns
Returns40
Yards100
Average2.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns20
Yards260
Average13.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts38
Yards123350
Average41.043.8
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards20
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties93
Yards8115
Yards / Game81.015.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3828:22
Third Downs
Attempts1114
Conversions53
Conversion %45.5%21.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips50
Scores (TD + FG)50
Score %100.0%—
Touchdowns50
TD %100.0%—
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts80
Made80
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →