Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference9-4#40 (+3.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
65· CRating
71· BPer play
65· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
66· CPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.064
Defensive EPA/play
-0.035
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.099
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.72
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#40
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#32
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: run defense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3952App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3883Central Michigan2019OA -0.065 / -0.005similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3724Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3655Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, rushing offense364

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Houston14-17L-1.8L59.5U
2vs Texas State20-13W-14.0L66.5U
3vs Army29-37L----
4@ Tennessee14-45L+21.5L59.5U
6@ Temple49-34W-14.0W54.5O
7vs UAB41-20W-10.0W67.5U
8@ Florida Atlantic36-10W-3.5W59.75U
9vs East Carolina41-27W-18.5L46.5O
10@ North Texas37-29W-7.5W71.5U
11vs Rice34-14W-16.0W67O
12vs South Florida49-21W+3.5L52U
13@ Tulane16-29L----
17@ Marshall35-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off45thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off93thPass Def84thRush Def48thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def39th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05568th-0.02965th
Red Zone+0.19286th-0.09167th
Third Down+0.47393th+0.21339th
No Garbage Time+0.06672th-0.03267th
First Half+0.09673th+0.05132th
Second Half+0.00950th-0.11687th
Early Downs-0.08925th-0.07470th
Passing Downs+0.20684th-0.05084th
Standard Downs-0.02945th-0.01648th
Goal to Go+0.06055th+0.19025th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.4%Rush 53.6%
Havoc/Game
17.7
Havoc Rate
24.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
421.6
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
47.7%
3&Out%
14.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points415313
Points / Game31.924.1
First Downs
Total295246
Rushing13393
Passing146133
Penalty1620
Rushing
Attempts516474
Yards2,2331,761
Yards / Carry4.33.7
Yards / Game171.8135.5
Touchdowns2716
Passing
Attempts446452
Completions290254
Completion %65.0%56.2%
Yards3,2483,037
Yards / Attempt7.36.7
Touchdowns2519
Interceptions1410
Passer Rating138.42122.08
Total Offense
Plays962926
Yards5,4814,798
Yards / Play5.75.2
Yards / Game421.6369.1
Punt Returns
Returns177
Yards12552
Average7.47.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1925
Yards319482
Average16.819.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5268
Yards2,1742,843
Average41.841.8
Interception Returns
Returns1014
Yards25091
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1415
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties7364
Yards666553
Yards / Game51.242.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0829:52
Third Downs
Attempts193215
Conversions9283
Conversion %47.7%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2631
Conversions1518
Conversion %57.7%58.1%
Red Zone
Trips5042
Scores (TD + FG)4335
Score %86.0%83.3%
Touchdowns3523
TD %70.0%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1724
Made1418
Pct82.4%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5133
Made5133
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →