Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasBalanced
Mid-American Conference8-6#105 (-8.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall
Offense
23· DRating
44· CPer play
78· BConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
69· CPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.003
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.085
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.97
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3722New Mexico2025OA -0.009 / +0.001similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate3583Marshall2017OA -0.030 / +0.016similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3554Liberty2021OA +0.054 / +0.011similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3415SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, run defense341

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Albany38-21W+4.5L40.5O
2@ Wisconsin0-61L+34.0L54.5O
3vs Akron45-24W-2.5W45.5O
4@ Miami12-17L+30.5W48U
5@ Western Michigan15-31L+15.0L62U
6vs Eastern Michigan42-16W+4.0W54O
7vs New Mexico State42-28W-10.0W56.5O
8@ Bowling Green38-20W-11.5W54O
9@ Buffalo20-43L+1.5L46.5O
10vs Northern Illinois48-10W+1.5W48.5O
12@ Ball State45-44W+1.5W60O
14vs Toledo49-7W-14.5W64U
15vs Miami (OH)21-26L-6.5L57U
17@ San Diego State11-48L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off44thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off83thPass Def75thRush Def66thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00347th-0.04971th
Red Zone-0.08136th+0.08627th
Third Down+0.19583th+0.02249th
No Garbage Time-0.00445th-0.03866th
First Half+0.01454th-0.00151th
Second Half-0.02339th-0.10187th
Early Downs-0.03234th+0.00354th
Passing Downs+0.01149th-0.08175th
Standard Downs-0.01044th-0.03166th
Goal to Go-0.17429th+0.24614th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.3%Rush 52.7%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
22.6%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
433.6
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
40.5%
3&Out%
16.2%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points426396
Points / Game30.428.3
First Downs
Total312275
Rushing122102
Passing160146
Penalty3027
Rushing
Attempts526493
Yards2,5391,719
Yards / Carry4.83.5
Yards / Game181.4122.8
Touchdowns3620
Passing
Attempts473445
Completions290267
Completion %61.3%60.0%
Yards3,5313,363
Yards / Attempt7.57.6
Touchdowns1925
Interceptions1313
Passer Rating131.78136.18
Total Offense
Plays999938
Yards6,0705,082
Yards / Play6.15.4
Yards / Game433.6363.0
Punt Returns
Returns2721
Yards212197
Average7.99.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3341
Yards749945
Average22.723.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5568
Yards2,3052,693
Average41.939.6
Interception Returns
Returns1313
Yards135111
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2613
Lost176
Penalties
Penalties11893
Yards925851
Yards / Game66.160.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1929:41
Third Downs
Attempts200190
Conversions8164
Conversion %40.5%33.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3032
Conversions1712
Conversion %56.7%37.5%
Red Zone
Trips5950
Scores (TD + FG)4846
Score %81.4%92.0%
Touchdowns3934
TD %66.1%68.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2120
Made1318
Pct61.9%90.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4747
Made4746
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts82
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →