Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#61 (+2.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
38· DRating
41· CPer play
16· DConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
64· CPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
-0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.034
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 8 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
17th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
79th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3652NC State2020OA -0.009 / +0.007similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3573Temple2017OA -0.067 / +0.055similar: run defense, defensive success rate, havoc rate3554Central Michigan2019OA -0.065 / -0.005similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3555Houston2020OA +0.005 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate345

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Miami (OH)31-26W+3.0W58.5O
2@ NC State20-37L+21.0W55O
3vs Kent State21-0W-14.0W50.5U
5@ Cincinnati38-21W+3.0W52.5O
6@ Charlotte14-3W-14.0L51U
7vs Old Dominion35-3W-12.5W48.5U
8@ Middle Tennessee38-10W-1.5W49U
9vs Florida International30-41L-14.5L47.5O
10@ Florida Atlantic25-30L+6.5W63.5U
11vs Western Kentucky30-23W-10.0L54.5U
12@ UTSA7-9L+3.0W45U
13vs Southern Miss27-28L-2.0L48O
16@ Colorado State31-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS5-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off35thRed Zone Off40th3rd Down Off91thPass Def61thRush Def69thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02547th-0.07165th
Red Zone-0.04540th-0.20686th
Third Down+0.26291th+0.03740th
No Garbage Time-0.03841th-0.07165th
First Half-0.00255th-0.05356th
Second Half-0.05038th-0.08771th
Early Downs-0.10620th-0.09172th
Passing Downs+0.04964th-0.05461th
Standard Downs-0.06835th-0.08169th
Goal to Go+0.06565th-0.03449th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.3%Rush 50.7%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
379.8
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points347259
Points / Game26.719.9
First Downs
Total265250
Rushing9488
Passing142135
Penalty2927
Rushing
Attempts455465
Yards1,8231,575
Yards / Carry4.03.4
Yards / Game140.2121.2
Touchdowns1413
Passing
Attempts443432
Completions266240
Completion %60.0%55.6%
Yards3,1152,867
Yards / Attempt7.06.6
Touchdowns2518
Interceptions146
Passer Rating131.41122.28
Total Offense
Plays898897
Yards4,9384,442
Yards / Play5.55.0
Yards / Game379.8341.7
Punt Returns
Returns2216
Yards4162
Average1.93.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3931
Yards862550
Average22.117.7
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5975
Yards2,5973,031
Average44.040.4
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards17062
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties8572
Yards777729
Yards / Game59.856.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0228:58
Third Downs
Attempts187189
Conversions8368
Conversion %44.4%36.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2125
Conversions911
Conversion %42.9%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips4041
Scores (TD + FG)3230
Score %80.0%73.2%
Touchdowns2421
TD %60.0%51.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1618
Made1013
Pct62.5%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4231
Made4128
Pct97.6%90.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →