Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA7-6#91 (-5.82)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
33· DPer play
38· DConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
56· CPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
49th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
32th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4142Old Dominion2021OA -0.103 / -0.001similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3793Washington State2025OA -0.049 / +0.072similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3784Akron2022OA -0.103 / -0.081similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3725Temple2022OA -0.081 / +0.030similar: passing offense, run defense, pass defense371

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Vanderbilt6-28L+3.0W60.5O
2@ Syracuse30-23W+7.5W72U
3@ Minnesota3-34L+13.5L50U
4vs Bowling Green24-13W-6.5W54U
5@ Florida Atlantic20-38L+2.5L60U
6vs Florida International37-17W-9.0W54P
7@ UAB23-25L-4.5L55.5U
8vs Marshall10-38L+1.5L49U
10vs UTEP30-3W-20.5W50.5U
11@ Charlotte35-21W-16.0L50O
12@ Western Kentucky38-41L-1.5L56O
13vs Old Dominion41-10W-13.5W51.5U
16@ Arkansas State35-30W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-8-1
27.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off31thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off30thPass Def53thRush Def71thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06830th-0.06764th
Red Zone-0.15716th-0.08967th
Third Down-0.12930th-0.12568th
No Garbage Time-0.05535th-0.05157th
First Half-0.05938th-0.05557th
Second Half-0.07732th-0.08170th
Early Downs-0.06836th-0.05160th
Passing Downs-0.05239th-0.03353th
Standard Downs-0.07731th-0.08471th
Goal to Go+0.06765th-0.30086th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.6%Rush 47.4%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
393.4
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
37.6%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points332321
Points / Game25.524.7
First Downs
Total274255
Rushing100110
Passing146119
Penalty2826
Rushing
Attempts427504
Yards1,8501,743
Yards / Carry4.33.5
Yards / Game142.3134.1
Touchdowns1519
Passing
Attempts473435
Completions282269
Completion %59.6%61.8%
Yards3,2642,902
Yards / Attempt6.96.7
Touchdowns2318
Interceptions175
Passer Rating126.44129.23
Total Offense
Plays900939
Yards5,1144,645
Yards / Play5.74.9
Yards / Game393.4357.3
Punt Returns
Returns189
Yards13054
Average7.26.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2529
Yards531766
Average21.226.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6573
Yards2,5633,243
Average39.444.4
Interception Returns
Returns517
Yards64237
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1516
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties8475
Yards809747
Yards / Game62.257.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2730:33
Third Downs
Attempts178204
Conversions6771
Conversion %37.6%34.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1633
Conversions715
Conversion %43.8%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips3552
Scores (TD + FG)2943
Score %82.9%82.7%
Touchdowns2328
TD %65.7%53.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1821
Made1516
Pct83.3%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4137
Made3937
Pct95.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →