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TROY
Troy
TrojansPass-HeavySun Belt Conference5-6#56 (+1.30)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
47· CPer play
31· DConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
64· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.001
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.19
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.81
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#56
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#59
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense40th
Opp-adjusted defense72th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play65th
Offensive success rate34th
Explosiveness54th
Defensive havoc37th
Points per drive53th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4362Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4193Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4144BYU2019OA +0.026 / -0.004similar: TD drive rate, run defense, takeaway rate3775Penn State2020OA -0.009 / +0.011similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense372
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | @ Middle Tennessee | 47-14 | W | -3.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 4 | @ BYU | 7-48 | L | +14.0 | L | 61 | U |
| 6 | vs Texas State | 37-17 | W | -7.0 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Eastern Kentucky | 31-29 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Georgia State | 34-36 | L | -2.5 | L | 68.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Arkansas State | 38-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 71.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Georgia Southern | 13-20 | L | -3.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 12 | vs Middle Tennessee | 17-20 | L | -12.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | @ App State | 10-47 | L | +13.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 14 | @ South Alabama | 29-0 | W | -4.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 15 | vs Coastal Carolina | 38-42 | L | +13.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-5
50.0%
O/U Record
3-7
30.0%
Straight Up
5-6
45.5%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.018 | 40th | -0.021 | 65th |
| Red Zone | -0.233 | 10th | -0.054 | 60th |
| Third Down | +0.057 | 49th | -0.089 | 81th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.004 | 45th | -0.024 | 65th |
| First Half | +0.099 | 73th | -0.036 | 69th |
| Second Half | -0.152 | 10th | -0.006 | 57th |
| Early Downs | -0.076 | 23th | +0.022 | 45th |
| Passing Downs | +0.078 | 59th | -0.076 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | -0.064 | 25th | +0.005 | 56th |
| Goal to Go | -0.223 | 18th | +0.034 | 52th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 58.2%Rush 41.8%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
392.8
Pts/Drive
2.19
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
17.9%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Troy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 301 | 283 |
| Points / Game | 27.4 | 25.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 240 | 242 |
| Rushing | 67 | 101 |
| Passing | 157 | 120 |
| Penalty | 16 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 328 | 448 |
| Yards | 1,129 | 1,833 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 102.6 | 166.6 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 456 | 358 |
| Completions | 299 | 240 |
| Completion % | 65.6% | 67.0% |
| Yards | 3,192 | 2,623 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 134.59 | 138.86 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 784 | 806 |
| Yards | 4,321 | 4,456 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 392.8 | 405.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 53 | 32 |
| Average | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 39 | 17 |
| Yards | 755 | 313 |
| Average | 19.4 | 18.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 43 |
| Yards | 1,962 | 1,703 |
| Average | 41.7 | 39.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 13 |
| Yards | 103 | 185 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 13 |
| Lost | 5 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 55 | 59 |
| Yards | 509 | 538 |
| Yards / Game | 46.3 | 48.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:53 | 33:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 164 | 160 |
| Conversions | 75 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 45.7% | 38.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 28 |
| Conversions | 10 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 58.8% | 46.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 34 |
| Score % | 71.7% | 85.0% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 23 |
| TD % | 54.3% | 57.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 21 |
| Made | 13 | 16 |
| Pct | 61.9% | 76.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 33 |
| Made | 34 | 31 |
| Pct | 97.1% | 93.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.