Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA8-6#73 (+0.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
50· CPer play
46· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
80· BPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.006
Defensive EPA/play
-0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.101
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 4 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4192Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4033Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3924Boise State2021OA +0.014 / +0.065similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3685Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense365

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Vanderbilt7-35L+6.5L48O
2vs UT Martin61-37W-19.0W46.5O
3@ Georgia7-49L+34.5L60U
5vs Florida Atlantic25-24W+2.5W63.5U
6@ Marshall34-24W+3.0W50.5O
7@ Florida International21-24L+2.0L61U
8vs Charlotte21-13W-17.0L50.5U
9@ Old Dominion51-17W-4.0W62O
10vs Western Kentucky29-10W-13.5W53U
11@ UTEP48-32W-13.5W49O
12@ Kentucky23-34L+16.5W48.5O
13vs UAB27-3W+3.0W51.5U
14vs UAB25-27L-1.5L44O
16@ App State13-45L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off48thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off60thPass Def61thRush Def83thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00447th-0.07777th
Red Zone-0.14616th-0.15481th
Third Down+0.09560th+0.25714th
No Garbage Time+0.00248th-0.10083th
First Half+0.00545th-0.03256th
Second Half-0.01542th-0.12292th
Early Downs-0.06225th-0.16498th
Passing Downs-0.00149th-0.03961th
Standard Downs-0.00648th-0.09883th
Goal to Go-0.3686th-0.34691th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
393.4
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
37.8%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points392374
Points / Game28.026.7
First Downs
Total296276
Rushing114127
Passing157122
Penalty2527
Rushing
Attempts505533
Yards1,8572,305
Yards / Carry3.74.3
Yards / Game132.6164.6
Touchdowns1517
Passing
Attempts487432
Completions336248
Completion %69.0%57.4%
Yards3,6502,985
Yards / Attempt7.56.9
Touchdowns2927
Interceptions1116
Passer Rating147.08128.67
Total Offense
Plays992965
Yards5,5075,290
Yards / Play5.65.5
Yards / Game393.4377.9
Punt Returns
Returns812
Yards115148
Average14.412.3
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns446
Yards76887
Average19.019.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6460
Yards2,6162,453
Average40.940.9
Interception Returns
Returns1611
Yards360159
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1414
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties7583
Yards707725
Yards / Game50.551.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2729:33
Third Downs
Attempts201205
Conversions7693
Conversion %37.8%45.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3227
Conversions1710
Conversion %53.1%37.0%
Red Zone
Trips5247
Scores (TD + FG)4537
Score %86.5%78.7%
Touchdowns2829
TD %53.8%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2520
Made1815
Pct72.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4542
Made4041
Pct88.9%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →