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Boise State
BroncosBalancedPac-12 Conference7-5#15 (+7.94)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
58· CRating
43· CPer play
53· CConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
80· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
-0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.066
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.072
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.81
own return game
Return Defense
+0.69
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#36
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 48 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense54th
Opp-adjusted defense76th
Offensive EPA/play44th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive49th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3682Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3523Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3424Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: defensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate3395Utah2017OA -0.009 / +0.071similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, rushing offense339
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UCF | 31-36 | L | -26.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UTEP | 54-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Oklahoma State | 20-21 | L | -5.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 4 | @ Utah State | 27-3 | W | -9.5 | W | 69.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Nevada | 31-41 | L | -6.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 6 | @ BYU | 26-17 | W | +6.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 7 | vs Air Force | 17-24 | L | -4.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 9 | @ Colorado State | 28-19 | W | -2.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Fresno State | 40-14 | W | -14.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Wyoming | 23-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs New Mexico | 37-0 | W | -2.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 13 | @ San Diego State | 16-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.016 | 41th | -0.094 | 86th |
| Red Zone | -0.081 | 39th | -0.232 | 89th |
| Third Down | +0.217 | 78th | +0.180 | 27th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.016 | 42th | -0.084 | 82th |
| First Half | +0.054 | 67th | -0.030 | 59th |
| Second Half | -0.089 | 17th | -0.171 | 94th |
| Early Downs | -0.106 | 17th | -0.123 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | +0.127 | 86th | -0.098 | 72th |
| Standard Downs | -0.088 | 17th | -0.092 | 82th |
| Goal to Go | +0.083 | 72th | -0.583 | 96th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
381.0
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
13.2%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Boise State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 350 | 228 |
| Points / Game | 29.2 | 19.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 264 | 226 |
| Rushing | 105 | 101 |
| Passing | 137 | 104 |
| Penalty | 22 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 460 | 478 |
| Yards | 1,444 | 1,904 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 120.3 | 158.7 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 409 | 322 |
| Completions | 254 | 186 |
| Completion % | 62.1% | 57.8% |
| Yards | 3,128 | 2,475 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 137.59 | 126.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 869 | 800 |
| Yards | 4,572 | 4,379 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 381.0 | 364.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 13 |
| Yards | 234 | 37 |
| Average | 15.6 | 2.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 37 |
| Yards | 484 | 683 |
| Average | 20.2 | 18.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 65 |
| Yards | 2,140 | 2,766 |
| Average | 42.0 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 10 |
| Yards | 268 | 82 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 17 |
| Lost | 5 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 60 | 93 |
| Yards | 595 | 738 |
| Yards / Game | 49.6 | 61.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:57 | 30:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 173 |
| Conversions | 80 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 44.2% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 15 |
| Conversions | 6 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 37.5% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 30 |
| Score % | 92.5% | 78.9% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 17 |
| TD % | 54.7% | 44.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 21 |
| Made | 26 | 15 |
| Pct | 92.9% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 23 |
| Made | 38 | 23 |
| Pct | 97.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.