Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference9-4#33 (+5.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
63· CRating
52· CPer play
60· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
92· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.102
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.134
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.150
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.044
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.22

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.40
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#51
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
model 3 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
62th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4202Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3983Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3904Washington2018OA +0.048 / +0.106similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3865Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense376

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ohio State31-45L----
2vs Miami (OH)31-26W-20.5L56.5O
3@ Colorado30-0W+2.5W48.5U
4vs Bowling Green10-14L-30.5L51U
5@ Purdue20-13W+2.5W47.5U
7vs Nebraska30-23W+4.0W47.5O
8vs Maryland34-16W-5.0W54.5U
9@ Northwestern41-14W-7.5W43.5O
10vs Illinois6-14L-14.5L44U
11@ Iowa22-27L+6.0W37O
12@ Indiana35-14W-7.0W43.5O
13vs Wisconsin23-13W+6.8W39U
18vs West Virginia18-6W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS5-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off56thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off58thPass Def92thRush Def65thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02253th-0.11289th
Red Zone+0.06066th+0.04433th
Third Down+0.11558th+0.05454th
No Garbage Time+0.01953th-0.13192th
First Half+0.05366th-0.16193th
Second Half-0.01043th-0.06570th
Early Downs-0.00849th-0.10383th
Passing Downs+0.02859th-0.21192th
Standard Downs+0.01956th-0.05165th
Goal to Go+0.16481th+0.18023th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 30.0%Rush 70.0%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
360.0
Pts/Drive
2.22
3rd Down%
44.7%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points331225
Points / Game25.517.3
First Downs
Total258202
Rushing14683
Passing92101
Penalty2018
Rushing
Attempts601376
Yards2,5741,268
Yards / Carry4.33.4
Yards / Game198.097.5
Touchdowns2711
Passing
Attempts257369
Completions152205
Completion %59.1%55.6%
Yards2,1062,356
Yards / Attempt8.26.4
Touchdowns1215
Interceptions98
Passer Rating136.38118.27
Total Offense
Plays858745
Yards4,6803,624
Yards / Play5.54.9
Yards / Game360.0278.8
Punt Returns
Returns1610
Yards13621
Average8.52.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1818
Yards289295
Average16.116.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4763
Yards1,9612,870
Average41.745.6
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards9943
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1115
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties5861
Yards589599
Yards / Game45.346.1
Time of Possession
Per Game35:2524:33
Third Downs
Attempts170164
Conversions7657
Conversion %44.7%34.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1419
Conversions87
Conversion %57.1%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips5027
Scores (TD + FG)4223
Score %84.0%85.2%
Touchdowns3016
TD %60.0%59.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2614
Made1711
Pct65.4%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3825
Made3624
Pct94.7%96.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →