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WASH
Washington
HuskiesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference10-4#30 (+5.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
77· BOverall
Offense
58· CRating
57· CPer play
81· BConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
84· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.048
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.106
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.103
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.127
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.64
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
AP 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 12 spots higher
31 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense84th
Offensive EPA/play58th
Defensive EPA/play85th
Offensive success rate80th
Explosiveness43th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3862Georgia2020OA +0.011 / +0.032similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense3793Minnesota2022OA +0.031 / +0.111similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3764Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3755South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA357
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Auburn | 16-21 | L | +5.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | vs North Dakota | 45-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Utah | 21-7 | W | -4.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Arizona State | 27-20 | W | -17.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 5 | vs BYU | 35-7 | W | -18.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 6 | @ UCLA | 31-24 | W | -21.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Oregon | 27-30 | L | -3.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 8 | vs Colorado | 27-13 | W | -18.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 9 | @ California | 10-12 | L | -12.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 10 | vs Stanford | 27-23 | W | -9.5 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Oregon State | 42-23 | W | -32.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Washington State | 28-15 | W | +2.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 14 | vs Utah | 10-3 | W | -4.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 19 | @ Ohio State | 23-28 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.027 | 60th | -0.113 | 89th |
| Red Zone | -0.112 | 23th | +0.115 | 28th |
| Third Down | +0.227 | 81th | -0.193 | 92th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.015 | 52th | -0.111 | 86th |
| First Half | +0.112 | 86th | -0.049 | 61th |
| Second Half | -0.066 | 23th | -0.181 | 97th |
| Early Downs | +0.009 | 60th | -0.089 | 82th |
| Passing Downs | -0.067 | 26th | -0.163 | 88th |
| Standard Downs | +0.073 | 78th | -0.085 | 80th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 30th | +0.133 | 39th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
414.6
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
18.1%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 369 | 229 |
| Points / Game | 26.4 | 16.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 310 | 237 |
| Rushing | 130 | 88 |
| Passing | 156 | 135 |
| Penalty | 24 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 564 | 461 |
| Yards | 2,468 | 1,626 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 176.3 | 116.1 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 405 | 457 |
| Completions | 264 | 295 |
| Completion % | 65.2% | 64.6% |
| Yards | 3,337 | 2,661 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.2 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 143.95 | 117.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 969 | 918 |
| Yards | 5,805 | 4,287 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 414.6 | 306.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 20 |
| Yards | 122 | 204 |
| Average | 5.3 | 10.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 42 |
| Yards | 285 | 884 |
| Average | 17.8 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,188 | 2,904 |
| Average | 40.5 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 12 |
| Yards | 100 | 164 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 23 |
| Lost | 5 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 74 |
| Yards | 619 | 612 |
| Yards / Game | 44.2 | 43.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:21 | 27:39 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 194 | 214 |
| Conversions | 88 | 81 |
| Conversion % | 45.4% | 37.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 23 |
| Conversions | 11 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 52.4% | 56.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 32 |
| Score % | 79.0% | 82.1% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 23 |
| TD % | 56.5% | 59.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 25 |
| Made | 16 | 17 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 68.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 44 | 21 |
| Made | 43 | 20 |
| Pct | 97.7% | 95.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.