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MINN
Minnesota
Golden GophersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference9-4#31 (+4.28)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
77· BOverall
Offense
64· CRating
56· CPer play
91· A-Consistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
93· APer play
96· AConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
64· C3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.111
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.010
Defensive EPA/play
-0.171
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.6%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.181
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.067
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.90
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#6
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#42
model 11 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense61th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play56th
Defensive EPA/play94th
Offensive success rate92th
Explosiveness45th
Defensive havoc19th
Points per drive64th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Washington2018OA +0.048 / +0.106similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3762Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3443App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3404Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: run defense, pass defense, rushing offense3375Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense336
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs New Mexico State | 38-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Western Illinois | 62-10 | W | -39.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 3 | vs Colorado | 49-7 | W | -27.5 | W | 47 | O |
| 4 | @ Michigan State | 34-7 | W | -3.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 5 | vs Purdue | 10-20 | L | -12.0 | L | 52 | U |
| 7 | @ Illinois | 14-26 | L | -6.5 | L | 39 | O |
| 8 | @ Penn State | 17-45 | L | +4.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Rutgers | 31-0 | W | -14.0 | W | 40.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Nebraska | 20-13 | W | -16.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 31-3 | W | -17.5 | W | 41 | U |
| 12 | vs Iowa | 10-13 | L | -3.0 | L | 32.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Wisconsin | 23-16 | W | +3.0 | W | 36 | O |
| 18 | vs Syracuse | 28-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.041 | 66th | -0.149 | 93th |
| Red Zone | +0.106 | 74th | -0.310 | 93th |
| Third Down | +0.152 | 64th | -0.320 | 96th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.004 | 55th | -0.174 | 94th |
| First Half | +0.060 | 70th | -0.196 | 94th |
| Second Half | +0.020 | 61th | -0.107 | 82th |
| Early Downs | -0.002 | 55th | -0.076 | 75th |
| Passing Downs | +0.080 | 67th | -0.250 | 95th |
| Standard Downs | +0.024 | 64th | -0.085 | 71th |
| Goal to Go | +0.241 | 83th | -0.555 | 97th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 32.6%Rush 67.4%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
15.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
389.8
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
52.1%
3&Out%
18.3%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Minnesota | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 367 | 180 |
| Points / Game | 28.2 | 13.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 281 | 199 |
| Rushing | 162 | 79 |
| Passing | 105 | 109 |
| Penalty | 14 | 11 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 581 | 376 |
| Yards | 2,698 | 1,417 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 207.5 | 109.0 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 281 | 394 |
| Completions | 172 | 229 |
| Completion % | 61.2% | 58.1% |
| Yards | 2,369 | 2,414 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 8 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 139.71 | 109.18 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 862 | 770 |
| Yards | 5,067 | 3,831 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 389.8 | 294.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 11 |
| Yards | 78 | 52 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 10 |
| Yards | 543 | 194 |
| Average | 23.6 | 19.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 66 |
| Yards | 1,896 | 2,862 |
| Average | 40.3 | 43.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 9 |
| Yards | 201 | 108 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 7 | 8 |
| Lost | 4 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 46 | 64 |
| Yards | 413 | 538 |
| Yards / Game | 31.8 | 41.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:32 | 25:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 165 |
| Conversions | 87 | 46 |
| Conversion % | 52.1% | 27.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 27 |
| Conversions | 6 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 28 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 25 |
| Score % | 85.2% | 89.3% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 12 |
| TD % | 68.5% | 42.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 15 | 18 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 18 |
| Made | 46 | 18 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.