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APP
App State
MountaineersRun-HeavySun Belt Conference11-2#7 (+10.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
94· AOverall
Offense
81· BRating
74· BPer play
62· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
95· APer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
46· C3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.175
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.065
Defensive EPA/play
-0.195
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
39.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.259
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.35
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 19 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 70 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense52th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play75th
Defensive EPA/play96th
Offensive success rate70th
Explosiveness52th
Defensive havoc76th
Points per drive86th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UCF2026OA -0.004 / +0.046similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4102Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate4063Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3974Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3935Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA380
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Penn State | 38-45 | L | -6.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 2 | @ Charlotte | 45-9 | W | -14.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Gardner-Webb | 72-7 | W | -45.0 | W | 56 | O |
| 5 | vs South Alabama | 52-7 | W | -25.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Arkansas State | 35-9 | W | -10.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Louisiana | 27-17 | W | -25.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 9 | @ Georgia Southern | 14-34 | L | -11.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Coastal Carolina | 23-7 | W | -13.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 11 | @ Texas State | 38-7 | W | -18.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 12 | vs Georgia State | 45-17 | W | -27.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Troy | 21-10 | W | -12.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 14 | vs Louisiana | 30-19 | W | -17.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 16 | vs Middle Tennessee | 45-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS8-4
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.061 | 75th | -0.192 | 97th |
| Red Zone | +0.074 | 67th | -0.383 | 98th |
| Third Down | +0.035 | 47th | -0.225 | 94th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.054 | 73th | -0.197 | 96th |
| First Half | +0.080 | 74th | -0.226 | 97th |
| Second Half | +0.042 | 66th | -0.154 | 94th |
| Early Downs | +0.067 | 79th | -0.073 | 75th |
| Passing Downs | +0.039 | 63th | -0.241 | 95th |
| Standard Downs | +0.072 | 77th | -0.163 | 96th |
| Goal to Go | +0.184 | 74th | -0.497 | 95th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.1%Rush 62.9%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
431.0
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
24.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | App State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 485 | 201 |
| Points / Game | 37.3 | 15.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 208 |
| Rushing | 131 | 91 |
| Passing | 112 | 98 |
| Penalty | 22 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 540 | 475 |
| Yards | 3,125 | 1,637 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 240.4 | 125.9 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 319 | 370 |
| Completions | 196 | 209 |
| Completion % | 61.4% | 56.5% |
| Yards | 2,478 | 2,107 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 5.7 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 8 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 147.10 | 102.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 859 | 845 |
| Yards | 5,603 | 3,744 |
| Yards / Play | 6.5 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 431.0 | 288.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 16 |
| Yards | 349 | 62 |
| Average | 12.9 | 3.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 31 |
| Yards | 663 | 799 |
| Average | 28.8 | 25.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 77 |
| Yards | 2,256 | 3,127 |
| Average | 42.6 | 40.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 12 |
| Yards | 271 | 152 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 17 |
| Lost | 5 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 78 |
| Yards | 752 | 614 |
| Yards / Game | 57.8 | 47.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:35 | 29:25 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 186 |
| Conversions | 71 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 42.0% | 31.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 22 |
| Conversions | 13 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 59.1% | 27.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 30 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 24 |
| Score % | 85.2% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 13 |
| TD % | 70.4% | 43.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 18 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 64 | 21 |
| Made | 63 | 21 |
| Pct | 98.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.